Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 1

Date: 15 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio El Encanto (Mazatlan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	AYM Sports, ESPN 4
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Aym Sports
Venezuela	Disney+


	Dorados		Cancún

	1	X	2
	2.40	3.40	2.40
	2.33	3.30	2.85	Watch
	2.56	3.65	2.65
	2.46	3.54	2.67	Watch
	2.50	3.55	2.55
	2.53	3.57	2.53	Watch
	2.55	3.50	2.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (3.25)	3.5 ↑ (3.35)	2.58 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Dorados
37.5%

Draw
26.5%

Cancún
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

27.6%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

27.2%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dorados has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dorados's performance.

Cancún has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cancún might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dorados than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dorados that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cancún than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cancún could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Dorados - Cancún Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Castro J. (G) 20. Osuna D. 4. Franco R. 32. Castro C. 18. Cervantes S. 7. Alvarez J. 13. Padilla G. 11. Contreras F. 17. Pena F. (C) 10. Vargas L. 29. Coronel O.	1. Arce E. (G) 3. Hernandez J. 15. Guillen D. 2. Alvarez A. 8. Melendre F. 10. Uscanga P. (C) 5. Chavez A. 7. El-mesmari B. 14. Campos K. 19. Preciado G. 11. Trejo C.
Substitutes
12. Egana A. 5. Flores A. 34. Flores I. (G) 27. Flores M. 8. Galicia C. 6. Guajardo D. 26. Gutierrez E. 15. Leyva C. 28. Ordorica B. 23. Sanchez B.	20. Arredondo A. 27. Gutierrez G. 16. Lomeli D. 17. Lopez L. 18. Montiel Herrera E. A. (G) 4. Reyes R. 33. Ruiz L. 139. Salaya De La Cruz C. 24. Vela C.
Coaches
Orozco L.	Bravo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+2', 1 - 0, Coronel O. ⚽, Contreras F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Alvarez J. ↓, Egana A. ↑,
52', 1 - 1, Campos K. ⚽,
61', Contreras F. ↓, Guajardo D. ↑,
61', Coronel O. ↓, Leyva C. ↑,
67', Uscanga P. ↓, Arredondo A. ↑,
74', Franco R. ↓, Gutierrez E. ↑,
75', Alvarez A. 🟨,
80', Pena F. ↓, Sanchez B. ↑,
82', Campos K. ↓, Ruiz L. ↑,
82', Melendre F. ↓, Vela C. ↑,
88', Preciado G. ↓, Reyes R. ↑,
90+6', Gutierrez E. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dorados won 1.

In recent matches, Dorados has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cancún is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Cancún may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Dorados won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:14. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Dorados won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.5:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Cancun	11	5	2	4	19:15	4	17
11	Dorados de Sinaloa	11	3	4	4	20:20	0	13

Last Results with these Odds

Dorados - the odds 3.25 are the expected chance of winning is 28.43%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dorados de Sinaloa
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
12.09.26	Dorados - Tapatío	3:1 ✺
03.09.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Dorados	1:4 ✺
28.08.26	Dorados - Atlético Morelia	0:1 ✺
20.08.26	Venados - Dorados	4:2 ✺
15.08.26	Dorados - Tlaxcala	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWLLT
- Cancún FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
11.09.26	Correcaminos UAT - Cancún	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Cancún - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	6:0 ✺
27.08.26	Cancún - Atlético La Paz	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Piratas de Veracruz - Cancún	0:1 ✺
15.08.26	Cancún - Alacranes de Durango	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
10.01.26	Cancún - Dorados	3:1
02.08.25	Dorados - Cancún	0:1
08.03.25	Cancún - Dorados	1:0
29.10.24	Dorados - Cancún	4:1
09.04.24	Cancún - Dorados	2:2
12.08.23	Dorados - Cancún	1:0
17.01.23	Dorados - Cancún	1:2

Upcoming Matches