Match Info

MEXICO: Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 22 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo (Cancún)

Referee: Alba Dorado J. L. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Cancún		Celaya

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.3
	2.36	3.3	2.85	Watch
	2.88	3.35	2.44
	2.41	3.26	2.91	Watch
	2.8	3.1	2.38
	2.5	3.2	2.8	Watch
	2.36	3.3	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↓ (2.84)	3.23 ↑ (3.17)	2.65 ↑ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cancún
36.1%

Draw
28.8%

Celaya
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

29%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

29.1%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cancún has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Celaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cancún than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celaya than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Cancún - Celaya Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Gutierrez G. (G) 7. Alonzo J. 14. De Los Rios S. 9. Diaz J. 23. Galindo B. 26. Marin H. 6. Ochoa I. 2. Padilla A. 11. Perez M. 4. Reyes R. 12. Rodriguez J.	1. Hernandez H. (G) 22. Baltazar C. 7. Barragan M. 25. Blanco D. 2. Cervantes D. 6. Del Angel E. 8. de los Santos L. 10. Dominguez A. 14. Manriquez S. 3. Monreal E. 11. Tejeda D.
Substitutes
1. Andrade C. (G) 5. Chavez A. 3. Hernandez J. 17. Rodriguez A. 141. Solano A. 22. Soria E. 24. Unjanque J. 10. Uscanga P. 15. Villa O. 20. Zaragoza A.	156. Chaurand K. 29. Espinoza G. (G) 16. Garcia J. 137. Giron M. 30. Kassi A. 136. Luna E. G. 19. Partida E. 18. Recalde B.
Coaches
Arce L.	Blanco Soto S. R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', Reyes R. 🟨,
20', 0 - 1, Baltazar C. ⚽,
26', Diaz J. 🟨,
40', Manriquez S. 🟨,
45+3', de los Santos L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Reyes R. ↓, Hernandez J. ↑,
53', 1 - 1, Galindo B. ⚽,
61', Dominguez A. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
69', Barragan M. 🟨,
70', Tejeda D. ↓, Recalde B. ↑,
71', Perez M. 🟨,
72', De Los Rios S. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
72', Perez M. ↓, Unjanque J. ↑,
73', Cervantes D. 🟨,
79', Marin H. ↓, Villa O. ↑,
79', Alonzo J. ↓, Zaragoza A. ↑,
82', Del Angel E. ↓, Partida E. ↑,
88', Unjanque J. 🟨,

Preview

You will have a great opportunity to watch a game between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cancún won 0.

Recent matches Cancún is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Celaya is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Cancún won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 6:23 (average 0.5:2.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Cancún won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3:8 (average 0.6:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cancún FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
15.03.25	Tlaxcala - Cancún	1:1 ✺
08.03.25	Cancún - Dorados	1:0 ✺
23.02.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Cancún	1:0 ✺
15.02.25	Cancún - Venados	1:2 ✺
08.02.25	Jaiba Brava - Cancún	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TWLLW
- Atlético Celaya
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
15.03.25	Jaiba Brava - Celaya	0:0 ✺
08.03.25	Celaya - Atlético Morelia	1:0 ✺
01.03.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Celaya	2:0 ✺
22.02.25	Celaya - Tepatitlán de Morelos	3:1 ✺
12.02.25	Atlético La Paz - Celaya	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
05.10.24	Celaya - Cancún	3:1
13.02.24	Cancún - Celaya	1:1
27.09.23	Celaya - Cancún	1:0
04.01.23	Celaya - Cancún	2:0
13.09.22	Cancún - Celaya	0:4
01.05.22	Celaya - Cancún	2:1
28.04.22	Cancún - Celaya	0:1

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