Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Tamaulipas (Tampico-Ciudad Madero)

Referee: Delgadillo Franco O. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fox Sports, Hi! Sports


	Jaiba Brava		Celaya

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.5
	2.29	3.15	3.05	Watch
	2.31	3.23	3.24
	2.26	3.24	3.19	Watch
	2.21	3.32	3.25	Watch
	2.29	3.15	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.65)	3.2 ↓ (3.3)	3.05 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jaiba Brava
40.3%

Draw
29.1%

Celaya
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

27.6%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

27%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jaiba Brava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jaiba Brava's performance.

Celaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Celaya might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jaiba Brava than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jaiba Brava that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celaya than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Celaya could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Jaiba Brava - Celaya Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. It will Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ruiz G. (G) 2. Bocco L. 16. Dominguez R. 23. Escoboza A. 28. Flores S. (C) 3. Garcia D. 9. Garza A. 7. Magana D. 26. Perez E. 4. Rios A. 10. Soto O.	1. Hernandez H. (G) 22. Baltazar C. 7. Barragan M. 25. Blanco D. 2. Cervantes D. (C) 6. Del Angel E. 8. de los Santos L. 10. Dominguez A. 28. Gamboa J. 21. Hernandez P. 3. Monreal E.
Substitutes
27. Angulo J. 14. Corona N. 11. Engelhart Mora C. A. 6. Garcia E. 1. Garcia J. (G) 33. Gonzalez R. 5. Lopez R. 30. Ramos Saucedo S. 20. Santacruz J. 17. Trevino J.	156. Chaurand K. 29. Espinoza G. (G) 16. Garcia J. 30. Kassi A. 136. Luna E. G. 19. Partida E. 18. Recalde B. 9. Sanchez A. 11. Tejeda D.
Coaches
Ruiz M.	Blanco Soto S. R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Blanco D. 🟨,
30', Cervantes D. 🟨,
31', Monreal E. 🟨,
36', Cervantes D. 🟥,
38', Rios A. ↓, Garcia E. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Garza A. ↓, Santacruz J. ↑,
58', Dominguez R. ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
58', Magana D. ↓, Corona N. ↑,
68', 1 - 0, Santacruz J. ⚽,
71', Baltazar C. ↓, Tejeda D. ↑,
71', Gamboa J. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
79', Barragan M. ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
79', Del Angel E. ↓, Luna E. G. ↑,
79', Perez E. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Jaiba Brava won 1.

Now both teams are in good shape.

Jaiba Brava could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 18 head-to-head matches Jaiba Brava won 4 matches, drawn 10 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 15:18 (average 0.8:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Jaiba Brava won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10:10 (average 1.1:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Jaiba Brava
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.04.25	Jaiba Brava - Atlante	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Jaiba Brava	1:2 ✺
29.03.25	Jaiba Brava - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:1 ✺
22.03.25	Dorados - Jaiba Brava	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	Jaiba Brava - Celaya	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.1 TWWWT
- Atlético Celaya
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.04.25	Celaya - Tapatío	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Celaya - Leones Negros UdeG	2:3 ✺
05.04.25	Tlaxcala - Celaya	0:3 ✺
29.03.25	Celaya - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:0 ✺
22.03.25	Cancún - Celaya	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
15.03.25	Jaiba Brava - Celaya	0:0
28.09.24	Celaya - Jaiba Brava	0:0
06.04.22	Jaiba Brava - Celaya	2:2
03.08.21	Celaya - Jaiba Brava	0:0
10.03.21	Jaiba Brava - Celaya	1:0
12.12.20	Celaya - Jaiba Brava	2:2
09.12.20	Jaiba Brava - Celaya	1:0

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