Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Tlahuicole (Tlaxcala)

Referee: Miranda E. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	AYM Sports, Disney+, ESPN 4
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Usa	Aym Sports


	Tlaxcala		Cancún

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.30	3.30	2.60
	2.32	3.35	2.65	Watch
	2.49	3.55	2.83
	2.32	3.66	2.77	Watch
	2.45	3.35	2.75
	2.29	3.67	2.78	Watch
	2.33	3.4	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.4)	3.47 ↓ (3.62)	2.72 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tlaxcala
39.3%

Draw
26.7%

Cancún
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

25.8%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

25.8%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tlaxcala has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Cancún has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tlaxcala than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cancún than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Tlaxcala - Cancún Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Tlaxcala will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Cancún will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Bedolla P. (G) 1. Govea I. (C) 29. Trejo Castro M. A. 21. Garcia E. 3. Santos E. 6. Iniestra A. 25. Flores B. 9. Christian 23. Gonzalez P. 24. Robles E. 11. Alvarez D.	1. Arce E. (G) 3. Hernandez J. 33. Ruiz L. 4. Reyes R. 8. Melendre F. 5. Chavez A. 10. Uscanga P. (C) 2. Alvarez A. 11. Trejo C. 14. Campos K. 12. Rodriguez J.
Substitutes
19. Camacho Lastra R. E. 10. Figueroa F. 12. Freyfeld J. 2. Gonzalez C. 28. Hernandez D. 7. Hernandez E. 31. Hernandez R. 30. Nuno A. (G) 16. Ramirez M. 20. Sanchez A.	20. Arredondo A. 6. Cortes J. 7. El-mesmari B. 9. Gigena T. 15. Guillen D. 16. Lomeli D. 17. Lopez L. 18. Montiel Herrera E. A. (G) 19. Preciado G. 24. Vela C.
Coaches
Ortega A.	Bravo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', Ruiz L. 🟨,
19', Santos E. 🟨,
23', 0 - 1, Trejo C. ⚽, Rodriguez J. (A),
33', 1 - 1, Alvarez D. (Penalty Awarded),
38', Trejo C. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Flores B. ↓, Freyfeld J. ↑,
58', Robles E. 🟨,
60', Alvarez D. ↓, Ramirez M. ↑,
68', 2 - 1, Robles E. ⚽, Govea I. (A),
75', Melendre F. ↓, Preciado G. ↑,
75', Ruiz L. ↓, El-mesmari B. ↑,
76', Uscanga P. ↓, Lopez L. ↑,
78', Iniestra A. ↓, Hernandez E. ↑,
79', Campos K. ↓, Gigena T. ↑,
81', Garcia E. 🟥,
85', Reyes R. 🟨,
85', Chavez A. ↓, Arredondo A. ↑,
87', 3 - 1, Ramirez M. ⚽, Hernandez E. (A),
90+3', Santos E. ↓, Gonzalez C. ↑,
90+8', 4 - 1, Robles E. ⚽,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 14th and 7th in the Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ PlayoffsQuarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tlaxcala won 2.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Tlaxcala has recorded 7 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:16 (averaging 1.1:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tlaxcala against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 8:2 goals (averaging 1.3:0.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Cancun	11	5	2	4	19:15	4	17
12	Tlaxcala	11	3	3	5	19:23	-4	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tlaxcala FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
20.09.26	Tapatío - Tlaxcala	4:0 ✺
12.09.26	Tlaxcala - Jaiba Brava	3:1 ✺
04.09.26	Alacranes de Durango - Tlaxcala	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Tlaxcala - Venados	3:1 ✺
20.08.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tlaxcala	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LWTWL
- Cancún FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.09.26	Cancún - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:0 ✺
15.09.26	Dorados - Cancún	1:1 ✺
11.09.26	Correcaminos UAT - Cancún	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Cancún - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	6:0 ✺
27.08.26	Cancún - Atlético La Paz	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
17.01.26	Tlaxcala - Cancún	1:0
09.08.25	Cancún - Tlaxcala	3:0
15.03.25	Tlaxcala - Cancún	1:1
28.09.24	Cancún - Tlaxcala	5:2
10.01.24	Tlaxcala - Cancún	1:0
06.09.23	Cancún - Tlaxcala	1:2
08.03.23	Tlaxcala - Cancún	1:0

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