Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 15

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Jalisco (Guadalajara)

Referee: Ramirez Gutierrez E. A. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports


	Leones Negros UdeG		Cancún

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.1	3.4	3.1	Watch
	2.21	3.54	3.29
	2.14	3.56	3.16
	2.15	3.2	3
	1.97	3.34	3.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (1.89)	3.41 ↓ (3.54)	3.19 ↓ (3.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones Negros UdeG
43.8%

Draw
27.2%

Cancún
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

25.9%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

25.8%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones Negros UdeG has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Cancún has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cancún than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Leones Negros UdeG - Cancún Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cancún (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 24. Aguayo J. 10. Brigido J. 9. Camacho Lastra R. E. 28. De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 22. Gil O. 88. Gonzalez O. 82. Meza U. 18. Munoz D. 2. Sanchez J. (C) 12. Villa O.	1. Andrade C. (G) 14. Campos K. 5. Chavez A. 7. El-mesmari B. 147. Lomeli D. 32. Lopez L. 8. Melendre F. 6. Ochoa I. (C) 4. Reyes R. 12. Rodriguez J. 30. Zabala L.
Substitutes
93. Lara M. 4. Ledesma A. 30. Lopez F. (G) 91. Navarro E. 94. Padilla L. 11. Perez J. 7. Rivera E. 86. Torres D. 87. Valenzuela M. 14. Villalobos A.	26. Arce E. (G) 21. Barraza L. 2. Guzman G. 18. Montiel S. 17. Padilla E. 19. Preciado G. 22. Soria E. 10. Uscanga P. 9. Villatoro M.
Coaches
Sosa L.	Bravo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', Meza U. 🟨,
39', Brigido J. 🟨,
43', Chavez A. 🟨,
45+3', 0 - 1, Rodriguez J. ⚽, Melendre F. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', 0 - 2, Rodriguez J. (Penalty Awarded),
58', Lomeli D. ↓, Soria E. ↑,
62', Meza U. ↓, Ledesma A. ↑,
62', Brigido J. ↓, Rivera E. ↑,
62', Gonzalez O. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
62', Camacho Lastra R. E. ↓, Valenzuela M. ↑,
68', Rodriguez J. ↓, Preciado G. ↑,
68', Chavez A. ↓, Uscanga P. ↑,
78', Melendre F. ↓, Barraza L. ↑,
78', Gil O. ↓, Villalobos A. ↑,
78', Lopez L. ↓, Villatoro M. ↑,
89', Villa O. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 2, Ledesma A. ⚽, Villalobos A. (A),

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 4.

In recent matches, Leones Negros UdeG has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cancún is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Leones Negros UdeG could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:7. (average 1.1:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Leones Negros UdeG won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:1. (average 1.4:0.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Leones Negros	11	7	2	2	27:16	11	23
7	Cancun	11	5	2	4	19:15	4	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones Negros UdeG
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
11.04.26	Venados - Leones Negros UdeG	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético Morelia	2:0 ✺
27.03.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Leones Negros UdeG	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Mineros de Zacatecas	1:3 ✺
14.03.26	Dorados - Leones Negros UdeG	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWTLT
- Cancún FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
11.04.26	Cancún - Atlante	2:1 ✺
03.04.26	Correcaminos UAT - Cancún	1:3 ✺
28.03.26	Cancún - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:2 ✺
21.03.26	Irapuato - Cancún	2:2 ✺
14.03.26	Cancún - Atlético La Paz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
08.11.25	Cancún - Leones Negros UdeG	0:1
23.02.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Cancún	1:0
07.09.24	Cancún - Leones Negros UdeG	0:1
09.02.24	Leones Negros UdeG - Cancún	2:0
05.10.23	Cancún - Leones Negros UdeG	2:0
11.01.23	Cancún - Leones Negros UdeG	2:2
06.09.22	Leones Negros UdeG - Cancún	3:0

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