Match Info

BRAZIL: Catarinense - Round 11

Date: 22 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio da Montanha (Nova Veneza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Fanatiz


	Caravaggio		Barra Santa Catarina

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.9	2.95	2.33
	3	3.21	2.35
	2.9	3.18	2.33	Watch
	2.96	3.08	2.38
	2.9	2.95	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↑ (2.3)	3.07 ↑ (3)	2.34 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caravaggio
31.2%

Draw
29.8%

Barra Santa Catarina
39%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

29.8%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

30.3%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caravaggio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Caravaggio's form might have worsened.

Barra Santa Catarina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Barra Santa Catarina's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caravaggio than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Caravaggio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barra Santa Catarina than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Barra Santa Catarina, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Caravaggio - Barra Santa Catarina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Arthur Vellasque (G) 11. Fernando Portel 8. Gabriel Henrique 9. Genesis 7. Henik 5. Jesse Costa 6. Padilha 4. Pavani 2. Rafael Compri 10. Renan 3. Wilian Carvalho	1. Ewerton (G) 13. Da Rocha 28. Giovani 30. Igor Pimenta 3. Jean Pierre 8. Joao Miguel 10. Juliano 31. Kayque 5. Natan (C) 26. Renan Bernabe 14. Vava
Substitutes
22. Arthur Augusto 13. Dorinho 21. Elyson 23. Henrique Freitas 20. Juninho 18. Lucas Matheus 12. Niccolas (G) 17. Ruan 19. Thauan 16. Tiago Coelho 14. Vinicius Barcellos 15. Ze Neto	12. Cabral (G) 33. Caua Silva 21. Diego Lanzarini 20. Guilherme Teixeira 2. Kellyton 34. Lucas Alisson 27. Paulinho 24. Perin 23. Rick 17. Saymon 9. Venicius

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Jesse Costa 🟨,
27', Perin 🟨,
38', Henik ↓, Ruan ↑,
40', Wilian Carvalho 🟨,
45+5', Joao Miguel 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Padilha ↓, Arthur Augusto ↑,
46', Wilian Carvalho ↓, Vinicius Barcellos ↑,
55', Genesis ↓, Elyson ↑,
64', Vinicius Barcellos 🟨,
65', Vava ↓, Guilherme Teixeira ↑,
66', Renan Bernabe ↓, Saymon ↑,
90+6', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 in the zone Relegation and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Catarinense (Play Offs: )).

Two teams are playing changeable.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caravaggio FC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
16.02.25	Figueirense - Caravaggio	5:1 ✺
12.02.25	Criciúma - Caravaggio	1:2 ✺
09.02.25	Caravaggio - Joinville	0:1 ✺
06.02.25	Concórdia - Caravaggio	2:0 ✺
02.02.25	Caravaggio - Hercílio Luz	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.4 LWLLW
- Barra Santa Catarina
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
15.02.25	Barra Santa Catarina - Avaí	1:0 ✺
12.02.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Barra Santa Catarina	2:0 ✺
08.02.25	Barra Santa Catarina - Figueirense	1:0 ✺
05.02.25	Barra Santa Catarina - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Brusque - Barra Santa Catarina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WLWTL

Caravaggio - Barra Santa Catarina: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide