Match Info

Catarinense - Play Offs - Final

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz (Itajaí)

Referee: Pfleger J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping


	Barra Santa Catarina		Chapecoense

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.88	2.38
	3.05	2.64	2.75	Watch
	3.1	2.75	2.3
	3.2	2.97	2.32
	3.2	3	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↓ (3.25)	2.85 ↓ (3.05)	2.39 ↑ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barra Santa Catarina
29.3%

Draw
32.2%

Chapecoense
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

30.1%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

30.4%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barra Santa Catarina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barra Santa Catarina than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Barra Santa Catarina - Chapecoense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ewerton (G) 6. Da Rocha 10. Elvinho 4. Everton Alemao 2. Fabio 7. Gabriel Silva 11. Geovany Soares 8. Henrique Freitas 3. Jean Pierre 9. Renan Bernabe 5. Tete	12. Leo Vieira (G) 33. Bruno Leonardo 27. Camilo Reijers 37. Clar W. 3. Eduardo Doma 77. Italo 20. Jean Carlos 7. Marcinho 18. Neto Pessoa 99. Rafael Carvalheira 25. Victor Caetano
Substitutes
24. Barba 17. Cleo Silva 12. Fabian Volpi (G) 23. Lucas Vargas 20. Marcelinho 21. Nicolas 15. Pablo 16. Pericles 19. Saymon 14. Vava 13. Vitao 18. Warley	91. Bruno Pacheco 19. David Antunes 97. Enio 22. Higor Meritao 4. Joao Paulo 5. Joao Vitor 21. Kauan 90. Mailson 2. Marcos Vinicius 9. Pedro Perotti 1. Rafael Santos (G) 70. Rubens Ricoldi
Coaches
Eduardo Souza	Gilmar Pozzo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Elvinho ⚽,
22', Elvinho 🟨,
29', 2 - 0, Renan Bernabe ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', Marcinho 🟨,
61', Marcinho ↓, Rubens Ricoldi ↑,
61', Neto Pessoa ↓, Pedro Perotti ↑,
65', Bruno Leonardo 🟨,
66', 3 - 0, Gabriel Silva ⚽,
71', Gabriel Silva ↓, Cleo Silva ↑,
73', Victor Caetano ↓, Kauan ↑,
76', Renan Bernabe ↓, Lucas Vargas ↑,
76', Elvinho ↓, Warley ↑,
79', Kauan 🟥,
82', Geovany Soares ↓, Saymon ↑,
84', Italo ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
84', Jean Carlos ↓, Marcos Vinicius ↑,
89', 3 - 1, Joao Vitor ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Barra won 1.

Barra is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Chapecoense has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Chapecoense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Barra won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Barra won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Barra Santa Catarina - the odds 3.25 are the expected chance of winning is 28.28%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barra Santa Catarina
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
21.02.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Camboriú	3:0 ✺
15.02.26	Camboriú - Barra Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Santa Catarina - Barra Santa Catarina	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Concórdia	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WTWTW
- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
22.02.26	Chapecoense - Brusque	3:0 ✺
14.02.26	Brusque - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Chapecoense - Coritiba	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
08.02.26	Chapecoense - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
05.02.25	Barra Santa Catarina - Chapecoense	1:1
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
19.10.24	Barra Santa Catarina - Chapecoense	1:2
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
31.01.24	Chapecoense - Barra Santa Catarina	2:2
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
06.09.23	Chapecoense - Barra Santa Catarina	4:1
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
23.03.23	Chapecoense - Barra Santa Catarina	1:2
18.03.23	Barra Santa Catarina - Chapecoense	2:0
11.03.23	Barra Santa Catarina - Chapecoense	0:0

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