Match Info

EFL Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 26 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: Cardiff City Stadium (Cardiff)

Referee: Duckworth E. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Cardiff City		Cheltenham Town

	1	X	2
	1.4	5	6.5	Watch
	1.44	4.8	6.5
	1.39	4.95	7.9	Watch
	1.38	5.04	7.4
	1.10	8.48	22.69	Watch
	1.4	4.5	6.5
	1.39	5.2	7.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.47)	5.42 ↑ (4.7)	9.3 ↑ (6.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff City
71.6%

Draw
17.9%

Cheltenham Town
10.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.2%

20.1%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.9%

19.3%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cardiff City's performance.

Cheltenham Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cheltenham Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cheltenham Town than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	7.1%	0%

Cardiff City - Cheltenham Town Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Cheltenham (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Cardiff (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Cardiff City will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cardiff City will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Cheltenham (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Turner M. (G) 38. Ng P. 12. Chambers C. (C) 48. Lawlor D. 3. Bagan J. 28. Mafico D. 27. Colwill J. 39. Davies I. 47. Robinson C. 29. Nyakuhwa T. 22. Salech Y.	1. Day J. (C) 2. Jude-Boyd A. 12. Power D. 19. Mazionis J. 3. Harmon G. 4. Kinsella L. 25. Sohna H. 14. Broom R. 16. Martin J. 22. Archer E. 9. Angol L.
Substitutes
45. Ashford C. 10. Colwill R. 2. Fish W. 49. Giles L. 51. Higgs D. (G) 50. Keita G. 44. Kpakio R. 16. Willock C. 6. Wintle R.	28. Backwell T. 18. Bakare I. 42. Barber M. 20. Bickerstaff J. 41. Diallo M. (G) 10. Miller G. 38. Tustin H. 30. Willcox F. 8. Young L.
Coaches
Barry-Murphy B.	Flynn M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Davies I. ⚽, Mafico D. (A),
26', Robinson C. 🟨,
32', 2 - 0, Chambers C. ⚽, Davies I. (A),
38', Angol L. (Pen),
45+3', Angol L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Robinson C. ↓, Willock C. ↑,
46', Davies I. ↓, Colwill R. ↑,
51', Power D. ↓, Bakare I. ↑,
51', 3 - 0, Colwill J. ⚽, Colwill R. (A),
56', Ng P. 🟨,
58', Broom R. ↓, Backwell T. ↑,
58', Harmon G. ↓, Willcox F. ↑,
65', Ng P. ↓, Kpakio R. ↑,
65', Bagan J. ↓, Giles L. ↑,
71', Salech Y. ↓, Ashford C. ↑,
72', Angol L. ↓, Miller G. ↑,
72', Jude-Boyd A. ↓, Barber M. ↑,
90+1', Mazionis J. 🟨,

Preview

Cardiff has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Cheltenham is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Cheltenham has had a series of home games.

In this match, Cardiff is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Cardiff: Tanner O. (Injury)

There will not play in Cheltenham: Anderson T. (Inactive) Cundy R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Cardiff: Mafico D. (Inactive) Robertson A. (Inactive) Turnbull D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Cheltenham: Thomas J. (Injury)

We predict that Cardiff will win today's game, with odds of 1.38.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff City
English League One
23.08.25	Luton Town - Cardiff City	0:1 ✺
19.08.25	AFC Wimbledon - Cardiff City	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Cardiff City - Rotherham United	3:0 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Cardiff City - Swindon Town	2:1 ✺
English League One
07.08.25	Port Vale - Cardiff City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WWWWT
- Cheltenham Town
English League Two
23.08.25	Cheltenham Town - Barnet	0:1 ✺
19.08.25	Cheltenham Town - Bromley	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Cheltenham Town	5:0 ✺
English League Cup
13.08.25	Cheltenham Town - Exeter City	2:0 ✺
English League Two
09.08.25	Cheltenham Town - Chesterfield	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
16.07.22	Cheltenham Town - Cardiff City	1:2
27.07.13	Cheltenham Town - Cardiff City	1:1
31.07.12	Cheltenham Town - Cardiff City	N/A

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