Match Info

League One - Round 5

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Coy M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	LTFC+, Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+


	Luton Town		Cardiff City

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.5	3.7
	2.1	3.4	3.3
	1.92	3.45	3.7
	2.02	3.57	3.74
	2.10	3.35	3.38	Watch
	2.1	3.2	3.3
	2.16	3.38	3.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (1.89)	3.41 ↓ (3.48)	3.5 ↓ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Luton Town
45.7%

Draw
27.5%

Cardiff City
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

26.6%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

27.4%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Cardiff City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	7.1%	42.9%

Luton Town - Cardiff City Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Luton will win (votes: 7 - 50%). Cardiff will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Luton: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Luton (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Cardiff (votes: 5 - 55.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Cardiff (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Luton (votes: 4 - 40%). Cardiff (votes: 6 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Keeley J. (G) 28. Makosso C. 6. McGuinness M. 3. Naismith K. (C) 17. Lonwijk N. 8. Walsh L. 23. Saville G. 7. Alli M. 18. Clark J. 21. Wells N. 20. Nordas L.	13. Trott N. (G) 44. Kpakio R. 2. Fish W. 48. Lawlor D. 3. Bagan J. 14. Turnbull D. 6. Wintle R. 45. Ashford C. 10. Colwill R. (C) 16. Willock C. 47. Robinson C.
Substitutes
26. Baptiste S. 33. Bramall C. 29. Holmes T. 30. Kodua G. 37. Nelson Z. 1. Shea J. (G) 9. Yates J.	12. Chambers C. 27. Colwill J. 39. Davies I. 24. King E. 38. Ng P. 22. Salech Y. 41. Turner M. (G)
Coaches
Bloomfield M.	Barry-Murphy B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Turnbull D. ↓, Colwill J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Keeley J. 🟨,
55', Saville G. 🟨,
58', Wells N. ↓, Yates J. ↑,
58', Lonwijk N. ↓, Kodua G. ↑,
68', 0 - 1, Willock C. ⚽,
70', Lawlor D. ↓, Chambers C. ↑,
70', Robinson C. ↓, Salech Y. ↑,
72', Walsh L. ↓, Nelson Z. ↑,
73', Saville G. ↓, Baptiste S. ↑,
86', Chambers C. 🟨,
90', Willock C. ↓, Davies I. ↑,
90+1', Nordas L. ↓, Bramall C. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luton won 5.

Luton has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cardiff is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Luton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Luton is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Knee Injury) Brown J. (Ankle Injury) Lockyer T. (Ankle Injury) Mengi T. (Knee Injury) Odoffin H. (Muscle Injury) Walters R. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Cardiff: Robertson A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Luton: Chong T. (Groin Injury) Jones I. (Back Injury) Kodua G. (Injury) Wells N. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Cardiff: Mafico D. (Inactive) Ng P. (Inactive) Tanner O. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Luton won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Luton won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English League One
19.08.25	Luton Town - Wigan Athletic	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Bradford City - Luton Town	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Coventry City - Luton Town	1:0 ✺
English League One
09.08.25	Peterborough United - Luton Town	0:2 ✺
01.08.25	Luton Town - AFC Wimbledon	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLLWW
- Cardiff City
English League One
19.08.25	AFC Wimbledon - Cardiff City	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Cardiff City - Rotherham United	3:0 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Cardiff City - Swindon Town	2:1 ✺
English League One
07.08.25	Port Vale - Cardiff City	0:0 ✺
02.08.25	Cardiff City - Peterborough United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
11.03.25	Cardiff City - Luton Town	1:2
06.11.24	Luton Town - Cardiff City	1:0
31.01.23	Luton Town - Cardiff City	1:0
30.08.22	Cardiff City - Luton Town	1:2
18.04.22	Cardiff City - Luton Town	0:1
27.11.21	Luton Town - Cardiff City	1:2
16.02.21	Luton Town - Cardiff City	0:2

Upcoming Matches