Match Info

Date: 30 July 2022, Saturday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Referee: Kirk T. (Eng)


	Carlisle United		Crawley Town

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.25	2.87
	2.45	3.2	2.8
	2.45	3.15	2.9
	2.45	3.2	2.75
	2.56	3.34	2.92
	2.45	3.2	2.88
	2.53	3.45	2.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.3)	3.26 ↑ (3.22)	2.87 ↓ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
38%

Draw
29%

Crawley Town
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

29.2%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Crawley Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	22.2%	55.6%

Carlisle United - Crawley Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Crawley will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Crawley: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Carlisle has the most likely position - 24 (13.57%), has project points - 49, has currently - 0, has a chance of relegated (24%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (5%), has a very small chance of promoted (3%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Crawley has the most likely position - 22 (6.38%), has project points - 56, has currently - 0, has a small chance of relegated (11%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (11%), has a small chance of promoted (7%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has very small quality 7, small importance 24, small match rating 16. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 2.

Crawley could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 21 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 9 matches, drawn 10 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 31-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 18-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
Club Friendly
23.07.22	Morecambe - Carlisle United	0:0 ✺
16.07.22	Carlisle United - Bolton Wanderers	3:1 ✺
09.07.22	Workington - Carlisle United	0:3 ✺
English League Two
07.05.22	Bradford City - Carlisle United	2:0 ✺
30.04.22	Carlisle United - Stevenage Borough	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TWWLW
- Crawley Town
Club Friendly
09.07.22	Crawley Town - Queens Park Rangers	3:3 ✺
02.07.22	Eastbourne Borough - Crawley Town	0:1 ✺
English League Two
07.05.22	Oldham Athletic - Crawley Town	3:3 ✺
30.04.22	Crawley Town - Leyton Orient	0:2 ✺
26.04.22	Sutton United - Crawley Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
15.01.22	Carlisle United - Crawley Town	1:1
11.09.21	Crawley Town - Carlisle United	2:1
30.03.21	Carlisle United - Crawley Town	2:0
21.11.20	Crawley Town - Carlisle United	0:3
15.02.20	Crawley Town - Carlisle United	0:0
03.08.19	Carlisle United - Crawley Town	2:1
27.04.19	Carlisle United - Crawley Town	4:2

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