Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 30

Date: 27 January 2024, Saturday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Referee: Oldham S. (Eng)


	Carlisle United		Bolton Wanderers

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.5	1.85
	3.75	3.4	1.93
	4	3.5	1.9
	3.82	3.35	1.93
	4.33	3.54	1.92
	3.7	3.6	1.85
	3.88	3.58	1.94	Watch
	3.9	3.5	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.96 ↓ (4.5)	3.5 ↓ (3.74)	1.89 ↑ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
23.7%

Draw
26.8%

Bolton Wanderers
49.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.9%

25.1%

54%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.3%

24.4%

55.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Bolton Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bolton Wanderers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	17.6%	64.7%

Carlisle United - Bolton Wanderers Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Bolton will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bolton: 42% – 87.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Lewis H. (G) 35. Armstrong L. 11. Butterworth D. 18. Ellis J. 6. Huntington P. (C) 5. Lavelle S. 10. McCalmont A. 22. Mellish J. 4. Moxon O. 33. Neal H. 19. Robinson J.	1. Baxter N. (G) 14. Adeboyejo V. 26. Ashworth Z. 10. Charles D. 12. Dacres-Cogley J. 22. Dempsey K. 3. Iredale J. 19. Maghoma P. 5. Santos R. (C) 8. Sheehan J. 18. Toal E.
Substitutes
13. Breeze G. (G) 27. Diamond J. 14. Garner J. 7. Gibson J. 34. Grehan S. 24. Maguire S. 8. Vela J.	9. Bodvarsson J. 13. Coleman J. (G) 35. Jerome C. 41. Matheson L. 7. Mendes C. 16. Morley A. 15. Ogbeta N.
Coaches
Simpson P.	Evatt I.

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )).

Carlisle is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Bolton is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Bolton could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Bolton is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English League One
16.01.24	Barnsley - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
13.01.24	Carlisle United - Oxford United	1:3 ✺
06.01.24	Exeter City - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
01.01.24	Carlisle United - Port Vale	2:1 ✺
29.12.23	Wigan Athletic - Carlisle United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLLWL
- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
23.01.24	Bolton Wanderers - Cheltenham Town	1:0 ✺
20.01.24	Leyton Orient - Bolton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
16.01.24	Bolton Wanderers - Luton Town	1:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
10.01.24	Accrington Stanley - Bolton Wanderers	1:3 ✺
English FA Cup
07.01.24	Luton Town - Bolton Wanderers	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
07.10.23	Bolton Wanderers - Carlisle United	1:3
Club Friendly
16.07.22	Carlisle United - Bolton Wanderers	3:1
English League Two
20.04.21	Bolton Wanderers - Carlisle United	1:0
26.12.20	Carlisle United - Bolton Wanderers	3:3
Club Friendly
23.07.13	Carlisle United - Bolton Wanderers	1:0

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