The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Carlisle United 17.6%
Draw 24.1%
Stevenage Borough 58.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
22.8%
26.9%
50.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
22.7%
27%
50.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Carlisle United's form might have worsened.
Stevenage Borough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stevenage Borough's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+5.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Carlisle United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (-7.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stevenage Borough, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
17.6%
11.8%
70.6%
Carlisle United - Stevenage Borough Predictions
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Stevenage will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%). Confidence interval (95%) for Stevenage: 48.9% – 92.3%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
40. Lewis H. (G) 26. Barclay B. 5. Lavelle S. (C) 22. Mellish J. 18. Ellis J. 21. McGeouch D. 33. Neal H. 15. Charters T. 3. Armer J. 35. Armstrong L. 11. Butterworth D.
12. MacGillivray C. (G) 3. Butler D. 6. Sweeney D. (C) 4. Thompson N. 17. Burns F. 10. Freeman N. 23. Thompson L. 8. Forster-Caskey J. 11. Roberts J. 29. Hemmings K. 9. List E.
Substitutes
13. Breeze G. (G) 27. Diamond J. 32. Emmanuel J. 7. Gibson J. 24. Maguire S. 10. McCalmont A. 19. Robinson J.
1. Ashby-Hammond T. (G) 22. Guinness-Walker N. 7. MacDonald A. 33. Oliver V. 14. Smith K. 24. Thompson B. 15. Vancooten T.
Coaches
Simpson P.
Evans S.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Butterworth D. ⚽, Ellis J. (A),
15', Forster-Caskey J. ↓, Vancooten T. ↑,
29', Freeman N. 🟨,
39', Roberts J. 🟨,
45+2', Charters T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Hemmings K. ↓, Oliver V. ↑,
46', Thompson L. ↓, Thompson B. ↑,
46', Roberts J. ↓, Guinness-Walker N. ↑,
65', 2 - 0, Butterworth D. ⚽,
67', Neal H. 🟨,
67', List E. ↓, MacDonald A. ↑,
72', Butterworth D. 🟨,
77', Lewis H. 🟨,
79', Butterworth D. ↓, Diamond J. ↑,
82', 2 - 1, MacDonald A. (Pen),
90+6', 2 - 2, Vancooten T. ⚽,
Preview
This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 8).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 2.
Carlisle is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Recent matches Stevenage is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
In this match Stevenage is a favorite.
Last 20 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 9 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 26-20.
Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11-5.
Watch
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Lewis H. (G) 
Lavelle S. (C) 
Thompson L. 
Maguire S. 
McCalmont A. 
Vancooten T. 
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