Match Info

ENGLAND: League Two - Round 35

Date: 4 March 2025, Tuesday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Referee: Marsden P. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Carlisle United		Walsall

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.3	2.15	Watch
	3.3	3.25	2.15
	3.25	3.3	2.25	Watch
	3.35	3.37	2.23
	3.27	3.31	2.18	Watch
	3.4	3.2	2.25
	3.29	3.28	2.19	Watch
	3.25	3.3	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↓ (3.33)	3.29 ↓ (3.34)	2.21 ↑ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
28.6%

Draw
28.7%

Walsall
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.2%

28.1%

43.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

27.8%

44.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Walsall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Walsall than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

Carlisle United - Walsall Predictions

Users Predictions: Walsall will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Breeze G. (G) 2. Davies A. 6. Hayden A. 5. Lavelle S. (C) 4. Thomas T. 40. Harris K. 8. Guy C. 44. Embleton E. 43. Whelan C. 19. Dennis M. 20. Scott C.	1. Simkin T. (G) 4. McEntee O. 26. Okagbue D. 21. Allen T. 2. Barrett C. 22. Jellis J. 25. Stirk R. 8. Lakin C. 3. Gordon L. 9. Matt J. (C) 37. Adomah A.
Substitutes
18. Ellis J. 17. Hugill J. 11. Jones J. 1. Lewis H. (G) 42. Patching W. 16. Vela J. 39. Wearne S.	11. Amantchi L. 15. Chang A. 14. Comley B. 12. Hornby S. (G) 39. Johnson D. 30. Weir E. 24. Williams H.
Coaches
Hughes M	Sadler M. J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Allen T. ⚽, Stirk R. (A),
22', 1 - 1, Hayden A. ⚽, Embleton E. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Embleton E. 🟨,
67', Embleton E. ↓, Jones J. ↑,
67', Whelan C. ↓, Vela J. ↑,
74', Adomah A. ↓, Amantchi L. ↑,
80', Guy C. ↓, Patching W. ↑,
80', Dennis M. ↓, Wearne S. ↑,
85', Hayden A. 🟨,
90', Matt J. ↓, Johnson D. ↑,
90+1', Davies A. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 0.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Carlisle could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Walsall will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Carlisle: Dummett P. (Inactive) Kelly G. (Inactive) McGeouch D. (Inactive) Williams J. (Injury) Wyke Ch. (Broken ankle)

There will not play in Walsall: Daniels D. (Calf Injury) Earing J. (Ankle Injury) Farquharson P. (Thigh Injury) Gordon J. (Hamstring Injury) Hall G. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Carlisle: Barclay B. (Inactive) Jones J. (Inactive) McArthur C. (Inactive)

Last 15 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 12:15 (average 0.8:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:5 (average 0.6:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Carlisle United - the odds 3.33 are the expected chance of winning is 28.2%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English League Two
27.02.25	Barrow - Carlisle United	0:1 ✺
22.02.25	Carlisle United - Gillingham	0:0 ✺
15.02.25	Carlisle United - Colchester United	0:0 ✺
11.02.25	Newport County - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
08.02.25	Grimsby Town - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WTTLL
- Walsall FC
English League Two
01.03.25	Walsall - Swindon Town	0:1 ✺
25.02.25	Cheltenham Town - Walsall	2:2 ✺
22.02.25	Morecambe - Walsall	0:2 ✺
15.02.25	Walsall - Chesterfield	3:1 ✺
11.02.25	Walsall - Gillingham	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
22.10.24	Walsall - Carlisle United	3:1
10.04.23	Walsall - Carlisle United	0:0
English FA Cup
26.11.22	Walsall - Carlisle United	2:1
English League Two
12.11.22	Carlisle United - Walsall	0:0
15.04.22	Walsall - Carlisle United	1:0
27.11.21	Carlisle United - Walsall	1:0
08.05.21	Carlisle United - Walsall	0:0

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