The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Newport County 33.5%
Draw 27.7%
Carlisle United 38.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
29.6%
27.5%
42.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
28.6%
26.6%
44.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Newport County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)
Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (-4.9%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+5.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carlisle United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
69.2%
26.9%
3.8%
Newport County - Carlisle United Predictions
Users Predictions:
25 users predict this event. Newport will win (votes: 17 - 68%). Carlisle will win (votes: 1 - 4%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 28%). Confidence interval (95%) for Newport: 49.7% – 86.3%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Townsend N. (G) 26. Evans C. 5. Clarke J. (C) 4. Baker M. 12. Thomas J. 19. McLoughlin S. 11. Antwi C. 3. Driscoll-Glennon A. 44. Ajiboye D. 7. Kamwa B. 9. Baker-Richardson C.
13. Breeze G. (G) 5. Lavelle S. (C) 4. Thomas T. 22. McArthur C. 24. Williams J. 42. Patching W. 43. Whelan C. 39. Wearne S. 40. Harris K. 44. Embleton E. 17. Hugill J.
Substitutes
25. Hudlin K. 23. Jameson K. 8. Martin J. 38. Patten K. 21. Spellman M. 32. Warner J. 36. Webb L. (G)
37. Bevan J. 19. Dennis M. 45. Fusire S. 3. Harper C. 1. Lewis H. (G) 7. Robson E. 20. Scott C.
Coaches
Jardim N.
Hughes M
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Evans C. 🟨,
36', McArthur C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', Whelan C. 🟨,
63', Williams J. 🟨,
69', Baker-Richardson C. ↓, Hudlin K. ↑,
69', Thomas J. ↓, Martin J. ↑,
70', Ajiboye D. ↓, Patten K. ↑,
74', Hugill J. ↓, Bevan J. ↑,
74', Embleton E. ↓, Scott C. ↑,
76', 1 - 0, Hudlin K. ⚽, Kamwa B. (A),
80', Patching W. ↓, Dennis M. ↑,
80', Wearne S. ↓, Fusire S. ↑,
89', Williams J. ↓, Harper C. ↑,
90+1', Lavelle S. 🟨,
Preview
Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 16 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Newport won 1.
Newport is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Carlisle is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Recently Newport have a series of guest games.
In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.
Last 18 head-to-head matches Newport won 8 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 26:23 (average 1.4:1.3).
Including matches at home between the teams Newport won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 14:7 (average 1.6:0.8).
Watch
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Townsend N. (G) 
Evans C. 
Clarke J. (C) 
McLoughlin S. 
Kamwa B. 
Lavelle S. (C) 
Thomas T. 
Jardim N. 
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