Match Info

Catarinense - Relegation Group - Round 5

Date: 26 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Estádio Augusto Bauer (Brusque)


	Carlos Renaux		Náutico Marcílio Dias

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.6	3.15	2.02
	3.87	3.18	2.01	Watch
	3.5	3	2
	4.04	3.02	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.75 ↑ (3.3)	3.09 ↑ (3.08)	1.99 ↓ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlos Renaux
24.4%

Draw
29.6%

Náutico Marcílio Dias
46%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

29.5%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.1%

29.1%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Renaux has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Náutico Marcílio Dias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlos Renaux than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Marcílio Dias than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Carlos Renaux - Náutico Marcílio Dias Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Carlos Renaux (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Carlos Renaux (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Edson (G) 2. Arouca 11. Cassio 9. Erverson 10. Matheus Campos 4. Rocha C. 8. Ruan 3. Tiago Santana (C) 5. Vitor Carre 7. Willian Mococa 6. Yago Zamora	1. Matheus Cavichioli (G) 10. Cesinha 8. Felipe Baiano 11. Felipe Cruz 5. Guilherme Kante 6. Jonathan 7. Jose Carlos 4. Luan 9. Lucas Batatinha (C) 3. Reginaldo 2. Victor Guilherme
Substitutes
22. Eduardo Lopes (G) 17. Gabriel Mello 14. Gerson 20. Guilherme Henrique 15. Keven 18. Lucas Tadeu 16. Rafael Franco 13. Rocha C. 19. Tavares 21. Thiago Tinoco	14. Claudinho 12. Erivelton (G) 18. Evandro 16. Goncalves C. 13. Joao Vitor 23. Joao Vitor (G) 15. Kaique Maciel 20. Miguel Silva 21. Ranghetti L. 17. Roldan 19. Vitinho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Cassio ⚽,
45+2', 2 - 0, Erverson ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Jose Carlos ↓, Roldan ↑,
57', Willian Mococa 🟨,
60', Cassio ↓, Guilherme Henrique ↑,
66', Felipe Baiano ↓, Miguel Silva ↑,
66', Felipe Cruz ↓, Kaique Maciel ↑,
70', 🟨,
73', 🟨,
73', Ruan ↓, Keven ↑,
74', 2 - 1, Kaique Maciel ⚽,
76', Guilherme Kante 🟨,
79', Jonathan 🟨,
83', Miguel Silva 🟥,
86', Arouca ↓, Gabriel Mello ↑,
90+2', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,
90+9', 🟥,

Preview

Carlos Renaux has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Marcílio Dias is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Marcílio Dias could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Carlos Renaux won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:5. (average 1.5:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Carlos Renaux won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Carlos Renaux
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
19.02.26	Carlos Renaux - Joinville	2:1 ✺
13.02.26	Joinville - Carlos Renaux	3:0 ✺
09.02.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Carlos Renaux	1:1 ✺
02.02.26	Carlos Renaux - Figueirense	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Carlos Renaux - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WLTWL
- Náutico Marcílio Dias
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
20.02.26	Figueirense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	0:1 ✺
13.02.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense	1:0 ✺
09.02.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Carlos Renaux	1:1 ✺
03.02.26	Joinville - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:4 ✺
25.01.26	Carlos Renaux - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
09.02.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Carlos Renaux	1:1
25.01.26	Carlos Renaux - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:4

Carlos Renaux - Náutico Marcílio Dias: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide