Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 25

Date: 19 March 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Pina Manique (Lisbon)

Referee: Nobre A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport
Portugal	Sport TV


	Casa Pia		Marítimo

	1	X	2
	2.1	3	4	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.7
	2	3.25	3.65
	2.03	3.2	3.75
	2.12	3.25	4.02
	2.1	3.1	3.75
	2.06	3.26	3.84	Watch
	2.14	3.15	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↑ (1.79)	3.16 ↓ (3.49)	3.81 ↓ (4.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casa Pia
45.4%

Draw
29.9%

Marítimo
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

26.4%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

22.4%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Casa Pia's form might have worsened.

Marítimo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.8%	11.5%	7.7%

Casa Pia - Marítimo Predictions

Users Predictions: Casa Pia will win (21 of 26 users predict this - 80.77%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.62% – 95.92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 7 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).

Casa Pia has the most likely position - 7 (14.77%), project points - 46, currently - 35, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), not chance of win league.

Marítimo has the most likely position - 16 (41.88%), project points - 27, currently - 16, a good chance of relegated (54%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 43, small importance 22, match rating 32. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Casa Pia is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Marítimo is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Casa Pia will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Casa Pia: Leo Natel (Broken Leg)

There will not play in Marítimo: Mendes D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Casa Pia: Rafael Martins (Injury) Tchamba D. (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Casa Pia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
13.03.23	Famalicão - Casa Pia	1:0 ✺
06.03.23	Casa Pia - Paços de Ferreira	2:1 ✺
25.02.23	Arouca - Casa Pia	2:0 ✺
19.02.23	Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0 ✺
13.02.23	Boavista - Casa Pia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWLTT
- CS Marítimo
Liga Portugal
12.03.23	Marítimo - Benfica	0:3 ✺
05.03.23	Gil Vicente - Marítimo	2:0 ✺
25.02.23	Marítimo - Santa Clara	3:1 ✺
18.02.23	Portimonense - Marítimo	2:1 ✺
12.02.23	Marítimo - Braga	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
03.10.22	Marítimo - Casa Pia	1:2

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