Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 18

Date: 20 January 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI (Porto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 10, Free
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Montenegro	Sportklub 3
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, SportKlub 3
Portugal	Sport TV1
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Serbia	SportKlub 3
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
World	Disney+


	Boavista		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	4	3.1	2.05	Watch
	3.7	3.1	2.1
	4	3	2.1	Watch
	4.13	3.12	2.17
	3.98	3.11	2.1	Watch
	3.7	3.1	2.1	Watch
	3.82	3.28	2.06	Watch
	4	3	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.92 ↑ (3.33)	3.1 ↓ (3.13)	2.1 ↓ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boavista
24.2%

Draw
30.6%

Casa Pia
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

30.1%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

29.1%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boavista has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Casa Pia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boavista than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
1.9%	15.4%	82.7%

Boavista - Casa Pia Predictions

Users Predictions: 52 users predict this event. Boavista will win (votes: 1 - 1.9%). Casa Pia will win (votes: 43 - 82.7%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Casa Pia: 72.4% – 93%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cesar (G) 35. Miguel G. 26. Abascal R. (C) 20. Ferreira F. 25. Dabo A. 10. Reisinho M. 18. Vukotic I. 88. Ribeiro M. 70. Onyemaechi B. 9. Bozenik R. 17. Namora M.	1. Sequeira P. (G) 4. Goulart J. 6. Fonte J. (C) 2. Tchamba D. 72. Larrazabal G. 16. Beni 89. Kraev A. 5. Lelo L. 29. Livolant J. 90. Cassiano 7. Moreira N.
Substitutes
7. Agra S. 71. Barros J. 2. Camara I. 15. Gomes P. 23. Machado T. 73. Marques A. 16. Silva J. 75. Silva T. 76. Sousa T. (G)	33. Batista R. (G) 17. Brito R. 18. Geraldes A. 3. Kluivert R. 14. Miguel Sousa 77. Obeng S. 80. Pablo Roberto 52. Pereira H. 9. Svensson M.
Coaches
Bacci C.	Santana A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
4', Onyemaechi B. 🟨,
9', Kraev A. 🟨,
30', 0 - 1, Abascal R. (Own goal),
43', 0 - 2, Ferreira F. (Own goal),
45', 1 - 2, Onyemaechi B. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Vukotic I. ↓, Agra S. ↑,
50', 1 - 3, Livolant J. ⚽,
53', Reisinho M. 🟨,
59', Namora M. ↓, Gomes P. ↑,
59', Dabo A. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
59', Miguel G. ↓, Silva T. ↑,
62', Gomes P. 🟥,
66', Larrazabal G. 🟨,
69', Kraev A. ↓, Brito R. ↑,
70', Larrazabal G. ↓, Geraldes A. ↑,
78', Livolant J. ↓, Svensson M. ↑,
78', Fonte J. ↓, Kluivert R. ↑,
80', Reisinho M. ↓, Camara I. ↑,
82', Agra S. 🟨,
88', Moreira N. ↓, Pereira H. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 3, Bozenik R. ⚽, Onyemaechi B. (A),

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 7).

Boavista is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Casa Pia is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Casa Pia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Casa Pia will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Boavista: Joao Goncalves (Knee Injury) Moraes Pires L. H. (Knee Injury) Perez S. (Red Card)

There will not play in Casa Pia: Kiki (Injury) Moreira N. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Casa Pia: Mendes C. (Knee Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Boavista won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3 (average 0.4:0.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Boavista won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1 (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boavista FC
Liga Portugal
04.01.25	Boavista - Arouca	1:3 ✺
28.12.24	Porto - Boavista	4:0 ✺
21.12.24	Boavista - AVS	0:0 ✺
14.12.24	Sporting Lisbon - Boavista	3:2 ✺
08.12.24	Boavista - Farense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLTLT
- Casa Pia
Taça de Portugal
12.01.25	Casa Pia - Rio Ave	1:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.01.25	Casa Pia - Famalicão	1:1 ✺
29.12.24	Braga - Casa Pia	1:2 ✺
20.12.24	Casa Pia - Arouca	3:1 ✺
15.12.24	Estoril Praia - Casa Pia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.6 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
10.08.24	Casa Pia - Boavista	0:1
05.02.24	Casa Pia - Boavista	0:0
27.08.23	Boavista - Casa Pia	1:1
13.02.23	Boavista - Casa Pia	0:0
21.08.22	Casa Pia - Boavista	2:0

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