Match Info

Liga Portugal - Relegation - Final

Date: 28 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 4


	Casa Pia		Torreense

	1	X	2
	2.38	2.7	3.4	Watch
	2.38	2.68	3.45	Watch
	2.48	2.76	3.68
	2.49	2.66	3.64	Watch
	2.4	2.7	3.4
	2.48	2.82	3.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.74)	2.72 ↓ (3.26)	3.54 ↑ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casa Pia
38.7%

Draw
34.7%

Torreense
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

29.8%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

30.5%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casa Pia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Torreense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Torreense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Torreense than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Torreense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	35.7%	28.6%

Casa Pia - Torreense Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Casa Pia will win (votes: 10 - 37%). Torreense will win (votes: 8 - 29.6%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Casa Pia: 18.8% – 55.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sequeira P. (G) 4. Goulart J. 3. Kaly 43. Sousa D. 19. Prieto K. 42. Perez S. 80. Ofori L. 18. Geraldes A. (C) 72. Larrazabal G. 10. Livramento D. 29. Livolant J.	1. Lucas Paes (G) 22. David Bruno 93. Mohamed D. 2. Stopira (C) 23. Vazquez J. 6. Leo Silva 65. Guilherme Liberato 29. Quintero L. 10. Costinha 7. Jean D. 17. Drammeh M.
Substitutes
8. Brito R. 90. Cassiano 5. Conte A. 6. Fonte J. 32. Kiki 11. Marques J. 24. Mohamed I. 31. Moura R. (G) 13. Osundina K.	46. Agbor B. 8. Alfaro A. 4. Casas A. 57. Danilo 13. Perez U. (G) 20. Pite 31. Seydi I. 26. Simoes A. 9. Zohi K.
Coaches
Pacheco A.	Tralhao L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Leo Silva 🟨,
16', Livolant J. 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Larrazabal G. ⚽, Prieto K. (A),
45+1', Drammeh M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Costinha ↓, Alfaro A. ↑,
53', Goulart J. 🟨,
64', Sequeira P. 🟨,
68', Perez S. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
68', Livramento D. ↓, Cassiano ↑,
68', Quintero L. ↓, Zohi K. ↑,
68', David Bruno ↓, Danilo ↑,
75', Livolant J. ↓, Osundina K. ↑,
75', Prieto K. ↓, Marques J. ↑,
75', Leo Silva ↓, Seydi I. ↑,
77', 2 - 0, Ofori L. ⚽, Osundina K. (A),
84', Guilherme Liberato 🟨,
89', Geraldes A. ↓, Conte A. ↑,
89', Guilherme Liberato ↓, Simoes A. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 0-0.

In recent matches, Casa Pia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Torreense is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Casa Pia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Casa Pia: Batista R. (Injury)

There will not play in Torreense: Pozo M. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Casa Pia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3:17	-14	4

Last Results with these Odds

Torreense - the odds 2.79 are the expected chance of winning is 34.79%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
20.05.26	Torreense - Casa Pia	0:0 ✺
16.05.26	Casa Pia - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
11.05.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Casa Pia	0:1 ✺
03.05.26	Casa Pia - Tondela	0:1 ✺
27.04.26	Gil Vicente - Casa Pia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TTWLL
- SCU Torreense
Taça de Portugal
24.05.26	Sporting Lisbon - Torreense	1:2 ET ✺
Liga Portugal
20.05.26	Torreense - Casa Pia	0:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
16.05.26	Torreense - Vizela	4:0 ✺
09.05.26	Lusitânia - Torreense	1:2 ✺
04.05.26	Torreense - Penafiel	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 47.5 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
20.05.26	Torreense - Casa Pia	0:0
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Casa Pia - Torreense	1:2
Portuguese League Cup
30.07.23	Torreense - Casa Pia	0:2

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