Match Info

Liga Portugal - Relegation - Final

Date: 20 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Manuel Marques (Torres Vedras)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Portugal	Sport TV1


	Torreense		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.1	2.75	Watch
	2.58	2.92	2.88	Watch
	2.7	3.03	3.02
	3.38	2.19	3.22	Watch
	2.63	2.9	2.8
	2.61	2.93	2.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.46)	2.85 ↓ (3.2)	2.93 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Torreense
34.5%

Draw
33.2%

Casa Pia
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

29.4%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

29.2%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Torreense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Casa Pia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Torreense than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	16.7%	8.3%

Torreense - Casa Pia Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Torreense will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Casa Pia will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Torreense: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Paes (G) 22. David Bruno 93. Mohamed D. 2. Stopira (C) 23. Vazquez J. 6. Leo Silva 65. Guilherme Liberato 8. Alfaro A. 29. Quintero L. 17. Drammeh M. 7. Jean D.	1. Sequeira P. (G) 4. Goulart J. 3. Kaly 43. Sousa D. 72. Larrazabal G. 24. Mohamed I. 80. Ofori L. 75. Rosas P. 29. Livolant J. 90. Cassiano (C) 11. Marques J.
Substitutes
46. Agbor B. 4. Casas A. 10. Costinha 57. Danilo 70. Marques R. 13. Perez U. (G) 31. Seydi I. 26. Simoes A. 9. Zohi K.	8. Brito R. 6. Fonte J. 18. Geraldes A. 10. Livramento D. 95. Mandic I. (G) 21. Morais T. 7. Nsona K. 42. Perez S. 19. Prieto K.
Coaches
Tralhao L.	Pacheco A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Guilherme Liberato 🟨,
35', Sousa D. 🟨,
45', Kaly 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Livolant J. ↓, Prieto K. ↑,
60', Cassiano ↓, Livramento D. ↑,
67', Marques J. 🟨,
68', Larrazabal G. 🟨,
71', Quintero L. ↓, Seydi I. ↑,
76', Rosas P. 🟥,
77', Guilherme Liberato ↓, Simoes A. ↑,
77', Mohamed I. ↓, Geraldes A. ↑,
84', Alfaro A. ↓, Zohi K. ↑,
84', Jean D. ↓, Costinha ↑,
85', Larrazabal G. ↓, Perez S. ↑,
87', Perez S. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Torreense has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Casa Pia has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Casa Pia: Batista R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Casa Pia: Cassiano (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Torreense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Torreense won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Outrights of Liga Portugal for now

Casa Pia: 0.13%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3:17	-14	4

Last Results with these Odds

Torreense - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 38.34%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SCU Torreense
Portuguese Liga 2
16.05.26	Torreense - Vizela	4:0 ✺
09.05.26	Lusitânia - Torreense	1:2 ✺
04.05.26	Torreense - Penafiel	3:2 ✺
28.04.26	Feirense - Torreense	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.04.26	Torreense - Fafe	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWWTW
- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
16.05.26	Casa Pia - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
11.05.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Casa Pia	0:1 ✺
03.05.26	Casa Pia - Tondela	0:1 ✺
27.04.26	Gil Vicente - Casa Pia	2:1 ✺
23.04.26	Casa Pia - Braga	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Casa Pia - Torreense	1:2
Portuguese League Cup
30.07.23	Torreense - Casa Pia	0:2

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