Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 34

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Referee: Malheiro H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 7
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 5
Portugal	Sport TV6
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Casa Pia		Rio Ave

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.6	4.75	Watch
	1.7	3.7	4.7	Watch
	1.73	3.88	4.88
	1.73	3.81	4.75	Watch
	1.7	3.6	4.5	Watch
	1.77	3.93	4.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.68)	3.75 ↓ (4.34)	4.72 ↑ (4.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casa Pia
54.9%

Draw
25.1%

Rio Ave
20%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.3%

21.8%

21.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

21.3%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	10%	20%

Casa Pia - Rio Ave Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Casa Pia will win (votes: 14 - 70%). Rio Ave will win (votes: 4 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Casa Pia: 49.9% – 90.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sequeira P. (G) 3. Kaly 4. Goulart J. (C) 43. Sousa D. 19. Prieto K. 42. Perez S. 80. Ofori L. 75. Rosas P. 72. Larrazabal G. 10. Livramento D. 11. Marques J.	99. van der Gouw E. (G) 20. Tome J. 32. Brabec J. (C) 39. Gustavo Mancha 77. Richards O. 44. Nikitscher T. 5. Ntoi A. 7. Diogo Bezerra 11. Blesa J. 18. Spikic D. 9. Monteiro T.
Substitutes
8. Brito R. 5. Conte A. 6. Fonte J. 18. Geraldes A. 29. Livolant J. 95. Mandic I. (G) 99. Mendes C. 24. Mohamed I. 13. Osundina K.	24. Buta L. 54. Liavas G. 63. Lomboto J. 27. Medina T. 1. Miszta C. (G) 19. Papakanellos A. 80. Pohlmann O. 25. Rafael Lobato 14. Zoabi K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Larrazabal G. ⚽, Livramento D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', 1 - 1, Blesa J. ⚽,
59', Perez S. ↓, Brito R. ↑,
59', Livramento D. ↓, Livolant J. ↑,
63', Spikic D. ↓, Papakanellos A. ↑,
76', Prieto K. ↓, Conte A. ↑,
80', Marques J. 🟨,
82', Diogo Bezerra ↓, Pohlmann O. ↑,
86', Rosas P. ↓, Osundina K. ↑,
86', Ofori L. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
88', Monteiro T. ↓, Lomboto J. ↑,
88', Tome J. ↓, Buta L. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 1.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

In this match, Casa Pia is the team to beat.

There will not play in Casa Pia: Batista R. (Injury)

There will not play in Rio Ave: Aguilera Zamora B. (Knee Injury) Petrasso F. (Red Card) Ryan Guilherme (Red Card)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:15. (average 0.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Casa Pia won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 1:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5:15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3:17	-14	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
11.05.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Casa Pia	0:1 ✺
03.05.26	Casa Pia - Tondela	0:1 ✺
27.04.26	Gil Vicente - Casa Pia	2:1 ✺
23.04.26	Casa Pia - Braga	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Casa Pia - Santa Clara	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WLLLT
- Rio Ave FC
Liga Portugal
11.05.26	Rio Ave - Sporting Lisbon	1:4 ✺
03.05.26	Rio Ave - Gil Vicente	0:0 ✺
25.04.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Rio Ave	2:0 ✺
17.04.26	Rio Ave - AVS	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Santa Clara - Rio Ave	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
04.01.26	Rio Ave - Casa Pia	3:1
29.03.25	Casa Pia - Rio Ave	2:1
Taça de Portugal
12.01.25	Casa Pia - Rio Ave	1:3
Liga Portugal
02.11.24	Rio Ave - Casa Pia	2:2
11.02.24	Rio Ave - Casa Pia	1:0
02.09.23	Casa Pia - Rio Ave	1:1
16.04.23	Rio Ave - Casa Pia	1:1

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