Match Info

Serie C - Group C - Round 7

Date: 27 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Alberto Pinto (Caserta)

Referee: Restaldo G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251


	Casertana		Catania

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.75	3.00	2.30
	2.60	2.90	2.48	Watch
	2.70	3.20	2.67
	2.87	3.13	2.39	Watch
	2.65	3.15	2.60
	2.84	3.13	2.29	Watch
	2.85	3.10	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↑ (2.65)	3.09 ↓ (3.16)	2.44 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casertana
33.1%

Draw
29.5%

Catania
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

29.1%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

28.2%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casertana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Catania has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casertana than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Catania than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Casertana - Catania Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. De Lucia V. (C) 18. Oukhadda S. 24. Belli F. 4. Kontek I. 21. Vezzoni F. 11. Favale G. 7. Piovanello E. 32. Di Tacchio F. 27. Sandri M. 10. Manconi J. 9. Castelli D.	57. Dini A. (G) 68. Ierardi M. 15. Di Gennaro M. 5. Perrotta M. 7. Bruzzaniti G. 16. Quaini A. 4. Vallocchia A. 32. Masciangelo E. 18. Cavuoti N. 10. Cicerelli E. (C) 23. Lunetta G.
Substitutes
51. Arzillo V. 20. Bentivegna A. 17. Caporale A. 19. Colley M. 8. Girelli S. 99. Henin G. 12. Luca S. (G) 22. Magro F. (G) 23. Martino P. 5. Mehic D. 16. Pezzella S. 33. Rocchi G.	6. Allegretto A. 35. Cabianca E. 8. Caligara F. 70. Catania N. 11. Caturano S. 9. Coda M. 30. Corbari A. 20. Donnarumma D. 94. Insigne R. 21. Liguori M. 1. Rinaldi F. (G)
Coaches
Espinal V.	Longo E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Cicerelli E. (Penalty Awarded),
29', Vallocchia A. 🟨,
32', Perrotta M. 🟨,
33', Vezzoni F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Vezzoni F. ↓, Henin G. ↑,
46', Cavuoti N. ↓, Caligara F. ↑,
53', Favale G. 🟨,
58', 1 - 1, Castelli D. ⚽,
65', Piovanello E. ↓, Girelli S. ↑,
72', Lunetta G. ↓, Insigne R. ↑,
72', Cicerelli E. ↓, Coda M. ↑,
84', Bruzzaniti G. ↓, Cabianca E. ↑,
84', Kontek I. ↓, Rocchi G. ↑,
84', Castelli D. ↓, Colley M. ↑,
87', Girelli S. 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 2, Ierardi M. ⚽, Insigne R. (A),

Preview

An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 4th in the Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/16~finals) and 11th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Casertana won 0.

Casertana is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Catania have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Recently, Catania has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Casertana has recorded 5 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:22 (averaging 0.9:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Casertana against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with 10:12 goals (averaging 1.3:1.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Catania	8	4	1	3	14:10	4	13
8	Casertana	8	3	3	2	12:12	0	12

Last Results with these Odds

Casertana - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 34.75%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Casertana
Italian Serie C Group C
19.09.26	Audace Cerignola - Casertana	0:0 ✺
15.09.26	Casertana - Altamura	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Inter U23 - Casertana	2:3 ✺
06.09.26	Casertana - Scafatese	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Savoia - Casertana	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 TWWTW
- Calcio Catania
Italian Serie C Group C
19.09.26	Catania - Barletta	0:0 ✺
15.09.26	Picerno - Catania	2:4 ✺
12.09.26	Catania - Scafatese	1:2 ✺
07.09.26	Catania - Nuova Cosenza	4:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
02.09.26	Catania - Savoia	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group C
09.03.26	Catania - Casertana	0:0
31.10.25	Casertana - Catania	2:2
16.02.25	Catania - Casertana	1:1
06.10.24	Casertana - Catania	1:3
11.02.24	Catania - Casertana	0:0
01.10.23	Casertana - Catania	0:4
25.04.21	Catania - Casertana	3:0

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