Match Info

Serie D - Group B - Play Out - Final

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday


	Castellanzese		Varesina

	1	X	2
	2.64	2.63	3	Watch
	2.53	2.75	2.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.49)	2.69 ↓ (2.81)	2.91 ↑ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castellanzese
35.1%

Draw
33.7%

Varesina
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castellanzese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Varesina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castellanzese than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varesina than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Castellanzese - Varesina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Robbiati A. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
52', 0 - 1, Arcopinto A. ⚽,
67', 1 - 1, Chessa M. ⚽,
82', 1 - 2, Manicone C. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Castellanzese won 1.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Castellanzese won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Castellanzese won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Castellanzese - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 36.07%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USD Castellanzese
Italian Serie D - Group B
26.04.26	Castellanzese - Milan Futuro	1:3 ✺
19.04.26	Chievo - Castellanzese	2:2 ✺
12.04.26	Castellanzese - Leon	1:0 ✺
02.04.26	Casatese - Castellanzese	1:0 ✺
29.03.26	Castellanzese - Scanzorosciate	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTWLL
- ASD Varesina
Italian Serie D - Group B
26.04.26	Varesina - Breno	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	Milan Futuro - Varesina	2:3 ✺
12.04.26	Varesina - Chievo	0:1 ✺
02.04.26	Virtus CiseranoBergamo - Varesina	4:1 ✺
28.03.26	Varesina - Leon	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
18.03.26	Varesina - Castellanzese	2:2
02.11.25	Castellanzese - Varesina	2:1
06.04.25	Varesina - Castellanzese	1:1
24.11.24	Castellanzese - Varesina	0:0
13.01.24	Varesina - Castellanzese	2:0
Coppa Italia Serie D
18.10.23	Castellanzese - Varesina	0:2

Castellanzese - Varesina: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide