Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Promotion Play Offs - Final

Date: 14 June 2025, Saturday


	Castellonense		Burgos Promesas

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.2	2.95
	1.68	3.35	4.91
				Watch
	1.6	3.56	5.68
	2.15	3.2	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (2.19)	3.33 ↑ (3.28)	4.16 ↑ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castellonense
49.5%

Draw
28%

Burgos Promesas
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

28.2%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

28.7%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castellonense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Castellonense's performance.

Burgos Promesas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Burgos Promesas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castellonense than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Castellonense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burgos Promesas than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Burgos Promesas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Castellonense - Burgos Promesas Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Castellonense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
44', 1 - 0, Martinez Oca A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

1st leg.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Castellonense could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Castellonense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 6
07.06.25	Castellonense - Utiel	1:1 ET ✺
01.06.25	Utiel - Castellonense	1:1 ✺
25.05.25	La Nucía - Castellonense	1:2 ✺
17.05.25	Castellonense - La Nucía	0:0 ✺
11.05.25	Castellonense - Atzeneta	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LTWTL
- Burgos Promesas
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
07.06.25	Atlético Tordesillas - Burgos Promesas	3:1 ✺
01.06.25	Burgos Promesas - Atlético Tordesillas	3:0 ✺
24.05.25	Burgos Promesas - Arandina	3:1 ✺
17.05.25	Arandina - Burgos Promesas	0:0 ✺
11.05.25	Burgos Promesas - Mirandés B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWWTT

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