Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 4

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Francisco Stedile (Caxias do Sul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Sky+, Zapping


	Caxias		Londrina

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.98	3	3.65
	2.13	3.05	4.04
	2.42	2.84	3.23	Watch
	1.97	3.16	3.63	Watch
	2.25	3.05	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.21)	3.02 ↑ (2.99)	3.54 ↑ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caxias
43.1%

Draw
30.7%

Londrina
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

30.3%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

29%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caxias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Londrina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Londrina than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Caxias - Londrina Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Thiago Coelho (G) 33. Alan 3. Alisson 25. Calyson 17. Igor Torres 6. Marcelo 99. Mossoro 2. Thiago Ennes 10. Tomas Bastos (C) 23. Vinicius Guedes 19. Welder	1. Luiz Daniel (G) 5. Alison 10. Cristiano 3. Gonzaga W. 11. Iago Teles 2. Joao Vitor 8. Lucas Marques 6. Matheus Leal 9. Quirino 7. Vitinho 4. Wallace (C)
Substitutes
44. Douglas 16. Douglas Skilo 51. Giovane Gomez 43. Guilherme Mantuan 4. Gustavo Henrique 9. Gustavo Nescau 28. Jhonatan Ribeiro 21. Kelvyn 15. Ronei 39. Taua 32. Victor Golas (G) 7. Yann Rolim	14. Cedric 19. Eliel 22. Gabriel Canela 17. Henrique 16. Joao Tavares 12. Luan Ribeiro (G) 20. Robson Duarte 13. Vanderley 21. Villian Guilherme 15. Yago Lincoln 18. Ze Breno
Coaches
Junior Rocha	Roger Silva

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Alisson ↓, Gustavo Henrique ↑,
24', Matheus Leal 🟨,
43', Thiago Ennes 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Igor Torres ↓, Jhonatan Ribeiro ↑,
52', Jhonatan Ribeiro 🟨,
53', Gonzaga W. 🟨,
61', Welder ↓, Giovane Gomez ↑,
61', Cristiano ↓, Gabriel Canela ↑,
61', Vitinho ↓, Henrique ↑,
66', 🟨,
68', Vinicius Guedes ↓, Douglas Skilo ↑,
69', Calyson ↓, Taua ↑,
71', 0 - 1, Quirino ⚽,
74', 🟨,
76', Iago Teles ↓, Ze Breno ↑,
81', Quirino ↓, Yago Lincoln ↑,
81', Lucas Marques ↓, Eliel ↑,
90+1', Ze Breno 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 3 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B Superbet)

Caxias has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Londrina has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Caxias may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Caxias will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caxias won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:7. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Caxias won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
20.09.25	Londrina - Caxias	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Caxias - São Bernardo	0:0 ✺
07.09.25	Floresta - Caxias	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Maringá - Caxias	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	Caxias - Brusque	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TTTLL
- Londrina EC
Brazilian Serie C
20.09.25	Londrina - Caxias	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Londrina - Floresta	0:0 ✺
06.09.25	São Bernardo - Londrina	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Ponte Preta - Londrina	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Londrina - Anápolis	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
20.09.25	Londrina - Caxias	1:1
31.05.25	Caxias - Londrina	4:2
20.07.24	Londrina - Caxias	2:0
13.09.15	Londrina - Caxias	1:1
13.07.15	Caxias - Londrina	1:1

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