Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 3

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Café (Londrina)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Londrina		Caxias

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.88	3	4.05
	1.9	3.16	4.48
	1.67	3.46	5.29	Watch
	1.86	3.04	4.34	Watch
	1.85	3.45	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 (1.83)	3.22 ↓ (3.6)	4.43 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Londrina
50.5%

Draw
28.7%

Caxias
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.6%

25.7%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

24.9%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Londrina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Londrina than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Londrina - Caxias Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luiz Daniel (G) 5. Alison 10. Cristiano 3. Gonzaga W. 11. Iago Teles 2. Joao Vitor 8. Lucas Marques 6. Mauricio Junior 9. Quirino 7. Vitinho 4. Wallace (C)	1. Thiago Coelho (G) 33. Alan 3. Alisson 17. Igor Torres 28. Jhonatan Ribeiro 6. Marcelo 99. Mossoro 2. Thiago Ennes 10. Tomas Bastos (C) 23. Vinicius Guedes 19. Welder
Substitutes
14. Cedric 19. Eliel 22. Gabriel Canela 17. Henrique 18. Joao Tavares 12. Luan Ribeiro (G) 16. Matheus Leal 23. Rikelmi 20. Robson Duarte 13. Vanderley 21. Villian Guilherme 15. Yago Lincoln	44. Douglas 16. Douglas Skilo 51. Giovane Gomez 4. Gustavo Henrique 11. Iago 21. Kelvyn 5. Lorran 15. Ronei 39. Taua 32. Victor Golas (G) 7. Yann Rolim
Coaches
Roger Silva	Junior Rocha

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', Tomas Bastos 🟨,
43', 1 - 0, Quirino ⚽,
45+1', Mauricio Junior 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Mauricio Junior 🟨,
49', Cristiano ↓, Matheus Leal ↑,
53', 1 - 1, Jhonatan Ribeiro ⚽,
54', Alan 🟨,
59', Vinicius Guedes ↓, Taua ↑,
59', Alan ↓, Gustavo Henrique ↑,
59', Tomas Bastos ↓, Yann Rolim ↑,
62', Vitinho ↓, Yago Lincoln ↑,
62', Quirino ↓, Joao Tavares ↑,
67', Jhonatan Ribeiro ↓, Iago ↑,
72', Lucas Marques ↓, Eliel ↑,
72', Iago Teles ↓, Villian Guilherme ↑,
81', Igor Torres ↓, Giovane Gomez ↑,

Preview

In recent matches, Londrina has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Caxias is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Londrina is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Londrina won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Londrina won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Londrina - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50.57%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Londrina EC
Brazilian Serie C
14.09.25	Londrina - Floresta	0:0 ✺
06.09.25	São Bernardo - Londrina	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Ponte Preta - Londrina	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Londrina - Anápolis	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Brusque - Londrina	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TTLTW
- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
13.09.25	Caxias - São Bernardo	0:0 ✺
07.09.25	Floresta - Caxias	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Maringá - Caxias	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	Caxias - Brusque	0:1 ✺
18.08.25	Tombense - Caxias	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
31.05.25	Caxias - Londrina	4:2
20.07.24	Londrina - Caxias	2:0
13.09.15	Londrina - Caxias	1:1
13.07.15	Caxias - Londrina	1:1

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