Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 6

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball


	Ceará		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.8	3.75	Watch
	2.25	2.9	3.75
	2.35	2.8	3.6	Watch
	2.38	2.87	3.76
	2.39	2.81	3.63	Watch
	2.45	2.9	3.1
	2.44	2.89	3.57	Watch
	2.35	2.8	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.43)	2.85 ↓ (3.19)	3.6 ↑ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ceará
40.2%

Draw
33.4%

São Paulo
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

29.7%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

30.8%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.5%	39.1%	4.3%

Ceará - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 13 - 56.5%). São Paulo will win (votes: 1 - 4.3%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 39.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ceará: 36.2% – 76.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Ceará (3.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Ceará (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ceará will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceará (votes: 13 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Fernando Miguel (G) 2. Ramos R. 3. Marllon (C) 23. Willian Machado 79. Matheus Bahia 88. Fernando Sobral 20. Diego 10. Lucas Mugni 27. Galeano A. 9. Pedro Raul 7. Pedro Henrique	23. Rafael (G) 2. Igor Vinicius 32. Ferraresi N. 35. Sabino 13. Diaz E. 21. Bobadilla D. 25. Alisson 48. Lucas Ferreira 49. Ryan Francisco 10. Luciano 11. Ferreira
Substitutes
33. Eder 80. Guilherme Luiz 18. Keiller (G) 99. Lele 97. Lourenco 31. Lucas Lima 44. Marcos Victor 22. Martinez A. 8. Matheus Araujo 30. Nicolas 40. Ramon Menezes 19. Romulo	17. Andre Silva 43. Felipe Negrucci 28. Franco A. 93. Jandrei (G) 12. Leandro Mathias (G) 45. Lucca Marques 20. Marcos Antonio 36. Patryck 15. Rodriguinho 22. Ruan Tressoldi 6. Soares C. 18. Wendell
Coaches
Leo Conde	Zubeldia L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Pedro Henrique ⚽, Matheus Bahia (A),
31', Diaz E. 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Ryan Francisco ⚽, Lucas Ferreira (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ferreira ↓, Soares C. ↑,
46', Willian Machado 🟨,
53', Pedro Henrique 🟨,
60', Ryan Francisco ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
60', Lucas Mugni ↓, Matheus Araujo ↑,
60', Pedro Henrique ↓, Guilherme Luiz ↑,
67', Igor Vinicius 🟨,
75', Igor Vinicius ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
75', Alisson ↓, Marcos Antonio ↑,
76', Marcos Antonio 🟨,
80', Matheus Bahia ↓, Nicolas ↑,
84', Soares C. 🟨,
85', Fernando Sobral ↓, Lourenco ↑,
85', Galeano A. ↓, Lele ↑,
88', Bobadilla D. 🟨,
90', Luciano ↓, Franco A. ↑,

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ceará won 0.

Recent matches Ceará is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

São Paulo is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ceará could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Ceará will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Ceará: Bruno Tubarao (Thigh Injury) Fabiano (Yellow Cards) Nicolas (Muscle Injury) Richardson (Heel Injury)

There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Matheus Alves (Yellow Cards) Oscar (Hamstring Injury) Pablo Maia (Ankle Injury) Robert Arboleda (Inactive) Young (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Ceará: Aylon (Injury) Bruno Ferreira (Injury) Fernandinho (Shoulder Injury) Luiz Otavio (Knee Injury) Richard (Achilles Tendon Injury)

Last 14 head-to-head matches Ceará won 1 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 11:18 (average 0.8:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Ceará won 0 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5:10 (average 0.7:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie A
21.04.25	Bahia - Ceará	1:0 ✺
15.04.25	Ceará - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Juventude - Ceará	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Ceará - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
31.03.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Ceará	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LWLWT
- São Paulo FC
Copa Libertadores
23.04.25	Libertad Asuncion - São Paulo	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.25	São Paulo - Santos	2:1 ✺
16.04.25	Botafogo RJ - São Paulo	2:2 ✺
13.04.25	São Paulo - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.25	São Paulo - Alianza Lima	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
18.09.22	Ceará - São Paulo	0:2
Copa Sudamericana
10.08.22	Ceará - São Paulo	2:2 penalties
03.08.22	São Paulo - Ceará	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
28.05.22	São Paulo - Ceará	2:2
14.10.21	São Paulo - Ceará	1:1
27.06.21	Ceará - São Paulo	1:1
10.02.21	São Paulo - Ceará	1:1

Upcoming Matches