Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 2

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Batista E. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Ceará		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.25	3.9	Watch
	2.05	3.2	3.9
	2.05	3.25	3.75	Watch
	2.09	3.26	3.8	Watch
	2.06	3.4	3.68	Watch
	2.05	3.25	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.68)	3.27 ↑ (3.26)	3.8 ↑ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
46%

Draw
29%

Grêmio
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

29.2%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

30.2%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ceará's performance.

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grêmio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ceará that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	20%	30%

Ceará - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Grêmio will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ceará: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceará (votes: 2 - 50%). Grêmio (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 70. Fabiano 3. Marllon (C) 23. Willian Machado 79. Matheus Bahia 88. Fernando Sobral 20. Diego 10. Lucas Mugni 27. Galeano A. 9. Pedro Raul 77. Fernandinho	1. Tiago Volpi (G) 34. Igor Serrote 21. Jemerson 3. Wagner Leonardo 25. Lucas Esteves 20. Villasanti M. 15. Camilo 8. Edenilson (C) 7. Pavon C. 19. Arezo M. 9. Amuzu F.
Substitutes
11. Aylon 33. Eder 16. Fernando Miguel (G) 80. Guilherme Luiz 97. Lourenco 31. Lucas Lima 44. Marcos Victor 22. Martinez A. 8. Matheus Araujo 30. Nicolas 2. Ramos R. 19. Romulo	77. Andre Henrique 16. Aravena A. 10. Cristaldo F. 17. Dodi 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 53. Gustavo Martins 18. Joao Pedro 11. Monsalve M. 14. Nathan 5. Rodrigo Ely 35. Ronald 44. Viery
Coaches
Leo Conde	Quinteros G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Amuzu F. 🟨,
26', 1 - 0, Pedro Raul (Pen),
41', Arezo M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Fernando Sobral ↓, Lourenco ↑,
46', Camilo ↓, Cristaldo F. ↑,
55', Igor Serrote 🟨,
58', Fernandinho ↓, Martinez A. ↑,
63', Pavon C. ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
63', Igor Serrote ↓, Aravena A. ↑,
67', Lucas Mugni ↓, Matheus Araujo ↑,
73', Matheus Bahia 🟨,
81', Edenilson ↓, Monsalve M. ↑,
87', Amuzu F. ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
90', Galeano A. ↓, Aylon ↑,
90+3', Pedro Raul ↓, Nicolas ↑,
90+6', 2 - 0, Matheus Araujo ⚽, Martinez A. (A),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ceará won 1.

Recent matches Ceará is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Grêmio is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Grêmio could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Ceará will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Grêmio: Cuellar G. (Muscle Injury) Walter Kannemann (Hip Injury)

There are questionable in Ceará: Bruno Tubarao (Muscle Injury) Galeano A. (Injury) Luiz Otavio (Injury) Richard (Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Ceará won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 12:17 (average 1.3:1.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Ceará won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:5 (average 1.5:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Grêmio - the odds 2.69 are the expected chance of winning is 35.33%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie A
31.03.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Ceará	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.03.25	Bahia - Ceará	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
22.03.25	Ceará - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
19.03.25	Ceará - Juazeirense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
15.03.25	Fortaleza - Ceará	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TLTWW
- Grêmio RS
Copa Sudamericana
02.04.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Grêmio	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.03.25	Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
16.03.25	Internacional RS - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.03.25	Athletic Club - Grêmio	3:4 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
08.03.25	Grêmio - Internacional RS	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
12.09.21	Grêmio - Ceará	2:0
30.05.21	Ceará - Grêmio	3:2
14.11.20	Grêmio - Ceará	4:2
12.08.20	Ceará - Grêmio	1:1
09.10.19	Grêmio - Ceará	2:1
19.05.19	Ceará - Grêmio	2:1
23.09.18	Grêmio - Ceará	3:2

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