Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 2 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Defensores del Chaco (Asunción)

Referee: Gilabert F. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN 4
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
South-america	ESPN 4 South
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+


	Sportivo Luqueño		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.5	1.75	Watch
	4.75	3.5	1.75
	4.75	3.6	1.72	Watch
	5.06	3.64	1.73	Watch
	4.6	3.3	1.75
	5.22	3.49	1.74	Watch
	4.75	3.6	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.91 ↓ (5.4)	3.52 ↓ (3.7)	1.74 ↑ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Sudamericana with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS 4

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Luqueño
19.1%

Draw
26.7%

Grêmio
54.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.3%

25.2%

57.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.9%

24.6%

58.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Luqueño has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Luqueño than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	0%	90%

Sportivo Luqueño - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: Grêmio will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Aguilar A. (G) 2. Ferreira R. 23. Aguilar P. 5. Villalba A. 13. Torres I. 20. Rios R. D. 16. Benitez A. 29. Santander F. 27. Baez J. 11. Vera E. 19. Perez M.	1. Tiago Volpi (G) 18. Joao Pedro 21. Jemerson 3. Wagner Leonardo 25. Lucas Esteves 17. Dodi 20. Villasanti M. 7. Pavon C. 10. Cristaldo F. 9. Amuzu F. 19. Arezo M.
Substitutes
17. Ayala W. 14. Benitez F. 3. Brizuela A. 37. Comas L. 40. Espinola A. (G) 9. Gonzalez W. 10. Hauche G. 28. Jimenez M. 6. Marchio J. 22. Ocampos S. 24. Parra A. 8. Rodriguez W.	77. Andre Henrique 16. Aravena A. 22. Braithwaite M. 15. Camilo 8. Edenilson 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 53. Gustavo Martins 34. Igor Serrote 2. Joao Lucas 11. Monsalve M. 99. Olivera C. 44. Viery
Coaches
Morinigo G.	Quinteros G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Arezo M. (Pen),
24', Lucas Esteves 🟨,
28', Rios R. D. 🟨,
29', 1 - 1, Santander F. ⚽, Vera E. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Vera E. 🟨,
62', Arezo M. ↓, Braithwaite M. ↑,
62', Rios R. D. ↓, Rodriguez W. ↑,
62', Santander F. ↓, Gonzalez W. ↑,
63', Pavon C. ↓, Olivera C. ↑,
63', Dodi ↓, Edenilson ↑,
70', Perez M. ↓, Comas L. ↑,
70', Baez J. ↓, Ayala W. ↑,
71', 1 - 2, Braithwaite M. ⚽, Olivera C. (A),
76', Torres I. 🟨,
77', Cristaldo F. ↓, Camilo ↑,
82', Amuzu F. ↓, Aravena A. ↑,
84', Joao Pedro 🟨,
88', Vera E. ↓, Hauche G. ↑,

Preview

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

Grêmio could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Grêmio is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Luqueño
Paraguayan Primera Division
29.03.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo Luqueño	2:2 ✺
23.03.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Guaraní Asuncion	0:1 ✺
16.03.25	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo Luqueño	0:1 ✺
10.03.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Nacional Asuncion	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.03.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo Ameliano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TLWWW
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
29.03.25	Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
16.03.25	Internacional RS - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.03.25	Athletic Club - Grêmio	3:4 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
08.03.25	Grêmio - Internacional RS	0:2 ✺
01.03.25	Juventude - Grêmio	2:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WTWLW

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