Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 19

Date: 6 August 2024, Tuesday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Goncalves da Silva K. A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, TV Brasil, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Amazon Prime Video


	Ceará		Guarani

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.5	7	Watch
	1.55	3.5	6
	1.57	3.75	6
	1.57	3.75	7.43
	1.6	3.61	6.11	Watch
	1.53	3.6	6.5
	1.57	3.78	6.11
	1.57	3.75	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.52)	3.66 ↓ (3.95)	6.39 ↑ (6.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
59.8%

Draw
25.6%

Guarani
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.2%

23.6%

15.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.8%

23.4%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Guarani has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

Ceará - Guarani Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Guarani will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ceará: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Richard (G) 6. Ramos R. 42. Matheus Felipe (C) 4. David Ricardo 79. Matheus Bahia 8. De Lucca 97. Lourenco 10. Lucas Mugni 11. Aylon 73. Saulo Mineiro 16. Erick Pulga	89. Vladimir (G) 28. Pacheco 23. Douglas Bacelar 13. Matheus Salustiano (C) 17. Jefferson 33. Gabriel Bispo 18. Matheus Bueno 10. Luan Dias 30. Airton 99. Caio Dantas 19. Joao Victor
Substitutes
98. Andrey 94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 5. Jean Irmer 17. Joao Victor 45. Kaique Rodrigues 77. Lucas Rian 20. Maycon M. 21. Paulo Victor 2. Rai Ramos 40. Ramon Menezes 28. Recalde J. 96. Yago Lincoln	5. Anderson Leite 39. dos Anjos D. 31. Douglas Borges (G) 2. Heitor 21. Lucas Araujo 8. Marlon Douglas 77. Marlon Maranhao 20. Reinaldo 15. Rene
Coaches
Leo Conde	Aal A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
26', 1 - 0, Erick Pulga ⚽,
41', 1 - 1, Caio Dantas (Pen),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Saulo Mineiro 🟨,
61', Lucas Mugni ↓, Lucas Rian ↑,
62', Matheus Bahia ↓, Paulo Victor ↑,
66', Aylon ↓, Recalde J. ↑,
68', Douglas Bacelar 🟨,
72', Luan Dias ↓, Marlon Douglas ↑,
72', Airton ↓, Marlon Maranhao ↑,
76', Gabriel Bispo 🟨,
77', 2 - 1, Lourenco ⚽,
83', Jefferson 🟨,
84', Ramos R. ↓, Rai Ramos ↑,
85', Lourenco ↓, Jean Irmer ↑,
85', Pacheco ↓, Heitor ↑,
86', Matheus Felipe 🟨,
89', Gabriel Bispo ↓, dos Anjos D. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 1, Erick Pulga ⚽,
90+4', Jean Irmer 🟨,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 8 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Two teams are playing changeable.

In this match Ceará is certain favorite.

There will not play in Ceará: Daniel Mazerochi (Injury)

There will not play in Guarani: Bruno Mendes (Injury) Camacho (Injury) Pegorari (Injury) Vinicius Kaue (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Ceará won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Ceará won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
28.07.24	América Mineiro - Ceará	2:2 ✺
25.07.24	Ceará - Botafogo SP	4:1 ✺
19.07.24	Avaí - Ceará	0:1 ✺
12.07.24	Paysandu - Ceará	2:1 ✺
05.07.24	Ceará - Santos	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TWWLL
- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Serie B
28.07.24	Guarani - Brusque	1:0 ✺
24.07.24	Amazonas - Guarani	1:1 ✺
21.07.24	Guarani - Goiás	2:3 ✺
13.07.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Guarani	1:1 ✺
07.07.24	Guarani - Sport Recife	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
02.08.23	Guarani - Ceará	0:0
22.04.23	Ceará - Guarani	0:3

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