Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 14

Date: 7 July 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio Brinco de Ouro (Campinas)

Referee: Lima Barbosa M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, TV Brasil, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Amazon Prime Video


	Guarani		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	3.1	3	2.38	Watch
	3	3	2.3
	3.1	3.1	2.35
	3.21	3.1	2.48
	3.23	3.02	2.36	Watch
	3	3.2	2.3
	3.15	3.14	2.33
	3.15	2.95	2.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↓ (3.16)	3.06 ↑ (3.01)	2.36 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarani
29.9%

Draw
30.5%

Sport Recife
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

30.9%

39.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.7%

30.2%

40.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarani has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	23.1%	61.5%

Guarani - Sport Recife Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Guarani will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Recife will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Recife: 35% – 88%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
89. Vladimir (G) 30. Airton 40. Bruno Oliveira 99. Caio Dantas 17. Jefferson 3. Leo Santos 12. Lucas Adell 21. Lucas Araujo 8. Marlon Douglas 18. Matheus Bueno 29. Yan Henrique	22. Caique Franca (G) 12. Alisson Cassiano 44. Chico 30. Chrystian Barletta 8. Dominguez F. 94. Felipe 9. Gustavo Coutinho 19. Lucas Lima 40. Luciano Castan (C) 59. Ortiz C. 48. Pedro Martins
Substitutes
22. Alvaro (G) 5. Anderson Leite 31. Douglas Borges (G) 6. Kayque 7. Luccas Paraizo 16. Manoel P. 26. Rafael Freitas 20. Reinaldo 32. Yuji	38. Dieguinho 7. Fabinho 47. Fabio Matheus 43. Luciano 27. Pablo Dyego 45. Riquelme 28. Rosales R. 21. Thiago Couto (G) 99. Ze Roberto
Coaches
Pintado	Soso M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Lucas Araujo 🟨,
32', Yan Henrique 🟥,
35', Bruno Oliveira ↓, Manoel P. ↑,
45+5', Luciano Castan 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lucas Araujo ↓, Anderson Leite ↑,
46', Pedro Martins ↓, Ze Roberto ↑,
61', Alisson Cassiano 🟨,
62', Marlon Douglas ↓, Luccas Paraizo ↑,
66', Alisson Cassiano ↓, Riquelme ↑,
66', Chico ↓, Dieguinho ↑,
73', Caio Dantas ↓, Yuji ↑,
74', Airton ↓, Reinaldo ↑,
77', 0 - 1, Ze Roberto ⚽,
80', Jefferson 🟨,
82', Lucas Lima ↓, Luciano ↑,
82', Ortiz C. ↓, Fabio Matheus ↑,
85', Ze Roberto 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 7).

Guarani is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Recife is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Guarani could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recife will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Guarani: Bruno Mendes (Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Guarani won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Guarani won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Serie B
30.06.24	Guarani - Ponte Preta	1:1 ✺
22.06.24	CRB Maceio - Guarani	1:0 ✺
18.06.24	Guarani - Ituano	3:3 ✺
14.06.24	Avaí - Guarani	3:2 ✺
08.06.24	Guarani - Operário Ferroviario	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLTLL
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie B
29.06.24	Botafogo SP - Sport Recife	1:1 ✺
24.06.24	Sport Recife - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 ✺
20.06.24	Ceará - Sport Recife	0:0 ✺
16.06.24	Sport Recife - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
10.06.24	Sport Recife - Paysandu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
18.08.23	Guarani - Sport Recife	3:1
07.05.23	Sport Recife - Guarani	2:0
28.07.22	Sport Recife - Guarani	2:1
16.04.22	Guarani - Sport Recife	0:0

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