Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 36

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Sampaio S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Mexico	Fanatiz
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	Fanatiz


	Ceará		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.2	2.7	Watch
	2.62	3.05	2.78
	2.76	3.16	2.87
	3.13	3.03	2.45	Watch
	2.81	3.26	2.72	Watch
	2.71	3	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↓ (3.08)	3.12 ↑ (2.98)	2.73 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
34.4%

Draw
30.6%

Cruzeiro
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

32.2%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

32.6%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	14.3%	28.6%

Ceará - Cruzeiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Ceará (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Ceará (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceará (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 70. Fabiano 44. Marcos Victor 23. Willian Machado (C) 79. Matheus Bahia 20. Diego 25. Vinicius Zanocelo 10. Lucas Mugni 27. Galeano A. 77. Fernandinho 9. Pedro Raul	1. Cassio (G) 12. William Furtado 15. Fabricio Bruno 25. Villalba L. 6. Kaiki 5. Walace 16. Lucas Silva (C) 88. Christian 10. Matheus Pereira 99. Arroyo K. 9. Gabriel Barbosa
Substitutes
11. Aylon 33. Eder 88. Fernando Sobral 97. Lourenco 99. Lucca 3. Marllon 30. Nicolas 17. Paulo Baya 2. Ramos R. 1. Richard (G) 26. Richardson 29. Vina	11. Bolasie Y. 21. Eduardo 23. Fagner 77. Japa 34. Jonathan Jesus 2. Kaua Moraes 36. Kaua Prates 57. Lelis R. 41. Leo Aragao (G) 8. Matheus Henrique 20. Ryan Guilherme 17. Sinisterra L.
Coaches
Leo Conde	Jardim L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Walace 🟨,
42', Arroyo K. ↓, Sinisterra L. ↑,
45+2', Lucas Silva 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', 1 - 0, Vinicius Zanocelo ⚽, Lucas Mugni (A),
65', Fernandinho ↓, Paulo Baya ↑,
69', Matheus Bahia 🟨,
69', Matheus Pereira 🟨,
71', 1 - 1, Willian Machado (Own goal),
73', Gabriel Barbosa 🟨,
73', Lucas Mugni ↓, Vina ↑,
80', Gabriel Barbosa ↓, Bolasie Y. ↑,
80', Christian ↓, Japa ↑,
80', Lucas Silva ↓, Eduardo ↑,
80', Willian Machado 🟨,
85', Pedro Raul ↓, Aylon ↑,
85', Diego ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
85', Vinicius Zanocelo ↓, Richardson ↑,
89', Walace ↓, Matheus Henrique ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 14 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

Recent performances by Ceará have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cruzeiro is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Fagner (Broken Leg) Janderson (Knee Injury) Marquinhos (Knee Injury) Romero L. (Yellow Cards) Wanderson (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Ceará: Fernando Sobral (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Cruzeiro: Arroyo K. (Injury) Christian (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 0.8:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Ceará - the odds 3.08 are the expected chance of winning is 31.16%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Cruzeiro - the odds 2.62 are the expected chance of winning is 36.63%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie A
24.11.25	Mirassol - Ceará	3:0 ✺
20.11.25	Ceará - Internacional RS	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Corinthians - Ceará	0:1 ✺
06.11.25	Ceará - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Ceará - Fluminense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 LLWTW
- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
23.11.25	Cruzeiro - Corinthians	3:0 ✺
20.11.25	Juventude - Cruzeiro	3:3 ✺
09.11.25	Cruzeiro - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
05.11.25	Grêmio - Cruzeiro	0:1 ✺
01.11.25	Cruzeiro - Vitória Salvador	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
27.07.25	Cruzeiro - Ceará	1:2
25.09.19	Ceará - Cruzeiro	0:0
01.05.19	Cruzeiro - Ceará	1:0
24.10.18	Cruzeiro - Ceará	0:2
03.06.18	Ceará - Cruzeiro	0:1

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