Match Info

Serie B - Round 26

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Rodrigues F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ceará		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	2.20	3.10	3.20	Watch
	2.20	3.00	3.20
	2.18	3.15	3.35	Watch
	2.33	3.14	3.44
	2.32	3.1	3.22	Watch
	2.30	3.10	3.40
	2.25	3.04	3.34	Watch
	2.25	3.05	3.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.14)	3.09 ↓ (3.3)	3.29 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
41.4%

Draw
30.3%

Sport Recife
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Ceará - Sport Recife Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Richard (G) 18. Julio Cesar 4. Luiz Otavio 71. Gabriel Rocha 6. Savio 25. Vinicius Zanocelo (C) 81. Joao Gabriel 11. Ferreira Berrondo M. N. 40. Melk 8. Matheus Araujo 9. Wendel Silva	26. Thiago Couto (G) 3. Marcelo Ajul 5. Benevenuto (C) 33. Kayky Almeida 96. Edson Lucas 23. Ze Gabriel 29. Willian Oliveira 30. Chrystian Barletta 8. Juan Alano 20. Diego Hernandez 9. Pedro Perotti
Substitutes
86. Aloisio 60. Enzo Lodovico 7. Giovanni Pavani 41. Gustavo Martins (G) 77. Lenny Lobato 10. Lucas Mugni 99. Lucca 13. Luiz Otavio 2. Ramos R. 26. Richardson 12. Sanchez 29. Vina	68. Augusto 6. Biel Fonseca 21. Brenno (G) 25. Clayson 10. de Pena Carlos 77. Dudu 28. Habraao 31. Marlon Douglas 15. Murilo Rhikman 48. Pedro Martins 99. Ze Roberto
Coaches
Daniel Paulista	Gilmar Pozzo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Ferreira Berrondo M. N. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Ferreira Berrondo M. N. ↓, Enzo Lodovico ↑,
46', Wendel Silva ↓, Vina ↑,
58', Gabriel Rocha ↓, Luiz Otavio ↑,
64', Juan Alano ↓, Clayson ↑,
73', 1 - 0, Luiz Otavio ⚽, Melk (A),
74', Willian Oliveira ↓, Biel Fonseca ↑,
75', Savio ↓, Sanchez ↑,
83', Ze Gabriel ↓, Pedro Martins ↑,
83', Marcelo Ajul ↓, Augusto ↑,
83', Chrystian Barletta ↓, Marlon Douglas ↑,
86', Enzo Lodovico 🟨,
88', 2 - 0, Melk ⚽,
90', Matheus Araujo ↓, Giovanni Pavani ↑,
90+5', 2 - 1, Marlon Douglas ⚽, Diego Hernandez (A),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recife may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ceará could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Ceará: Bryan Borges (Thigh Injury) Eder (Injury) Gilmar (Injury) Thalisson (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Recife: Chrystian Barletta (Injury) Fabio Matheus (Ankle Injury) Felipinho (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 24:20. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:6. (average 1.4:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Sport Recife	32	13	11	8	44:34	10	50
15	Ceara	31	10	9	12	34:39	-5	39

Last Results with these Odds

Ceará - the odds 2.14 are the expected chance of winning is 43.54%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
30.08.26	Vila Nova - Ceará	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Ceará - Londrina	2:1 ✺
18.08.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Ceará - Cuiabá	1:3 ✺
07.08.26	Ceará - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLLW
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie B
28.08.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
24.08.26	Sport Recife - América Mineiro	3:0 ✺
19.08.26	Avaí - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
14.08.26	Sport Recife - Londrina	2:1 ✺
08.08.26	Vila Nova - Sport Recife	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	Sport Recife - Ceará	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
15.10.25	Sport Recife - Ceará	1:1
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
09.07.25	Sport Recife - Ceará	0:1 penalties
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.25	Ceará - Sport Recife	2:0
Brazilian Serie B
07.10.24	Sport Recife - Ceará	2:1
20.06.24	Ceará - Sport Recife	0:0
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
10.04.24	Sport Recife - Ceará	2:1

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