Match Info

Serie B - Round 25

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga (Goiânia)

Referee: Willers Lorenzatto L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, SportyNet
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Vila Nova		Ceará

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.5	4.75	Watch
	1.88	3.10	4.10
	1.75	3.3	4.6	Watch
	1.83	3.4	5.03
	1.78	3.38	4.81	Watch
	1.8	3.35	4.95
	1.82	3.28	4.59	Watch
	1.78	3.35	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.88)	3.33 ↑ (3.3)	4.68 ↑ (4.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vila Nova
52%

Draw
28.1%

Ceará
20%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.5%

28.1%

22.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

29%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Vila Nova - Ceará Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Vila Nova will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Ceará will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.25, 1st Half - over (2.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Helton Leite (G) 22. Hayner 3. Tiago Pagnussat 23. Breno Augusto 6. Higor 5. Joao Vieira 15. Dudu 17. Everton Galdino 10. Marquinhos Gabriel (C) 99. Janderson 7. Andre Luis	1. Richard (G) 18. Julio Cesar 4. Luiz Otavio 71. Gabriel Rocha 12. Sanchez 26. Richardson (C) 81. Joao Gabriel 60. Enzo Lodovico 11. Lucas Mugni 20. Ferreira Berrondo M. N. 99. Lucca
Substitutes
33. Bruno Xavier 29. Dalberson (G) 31. Dodo 70. Emerson Urso 18. Enzo Bizzotto 9. Gustavo Puskas 21. Higor Meritao 16. Igor Carius 20. Nathan Camargo 11. Ryan 13. Willian Formiga 8. Willian Maranhao	86. Aloisio 83. Gabriel Amaral 21. Giovanni Pavani 77. Lenny Lobato 13. Luiz Otavio 8. Matheus Araujo 22. Matheus Nogueira (G) 40. Melk 2. Ramos R. 29. Vina 25. Vinicius Zanocelo
Coaches
Guto Ferreira	Daniel Paulista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Breno Augusto ⚽, Tiago Pagnussat (A),
45+2', Breno Augusto ↓, Willian Formiga ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Richardson ↓, Vinicius Zanocelo ↑,
46', Lucas Mugni ↓, Matheus Araujo ↑,
53', Dudu 🟨,
54', Julio Cesar 🟨,
72', Julio Cesar ↓, Vina ↑,
72', Ferreira Berrondo M. N. ↓, Lenny Lobato ↑,
73', Marquinhos Gabriel ↓, Dodo ↑,
73', Everton Galdino ↓, Emerson Urso ↑,
75', 2 - 0, Andre Luis ⚽, Janderson (A),
79', Joao Vieira 🟨,
79', Dudu ↓, Willian Maranhao ↑,
80', Joao Vieira ↓, Nathan Camargo ↑,
84', Enzo Lodovico ↓, Aloisio ↑,
90', Vinicius Zanocelo 🟨,
90', Richard 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vila Nova won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Ceará may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Vila Nova is the team to beat.

There will not play in Vila Nova: Rafa Silva (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Ceará: Bryan Borges (Thigh Injury) Eder (Injury) Gilmar (Injury) Thalisson (Knee Injury) Vinicius Zanocelo (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Vila Nova: Douglas Mendes (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ceará: Richard (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Vila Nova won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 17:29. (average 1.5:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Vila Nova won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 2.2:2.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Vila Nova FC	32	17	7	8	44:31	13	58
15	Ceara	31	10	9	12	34:39	-5	39

Last Results with these Odds

Vila Nova - the odds 1.88 are the expected chance of winning is 49.5%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Ceará - the odds 4.15 are the expected chance of winning is 22.38%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
23.08.26	Operário Ferroviario - Vila Nova	0:0 ✺
19.08.26	Vila Nova - Ponte Preta	6:0 ✺
15.08.26	Atlético Goianiense - Vila Nova	0:2 ✺
08.08.26	Vila Nova - Sport Recife	0:1 ✺
27.07.26	CRB Maceio - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TWWLL
- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
22.08.26	Ceará - Londrina	2:1 ✺
18.08.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Ceará - Cuiabá	1:3 ✺
07.08.26	Ceará - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
26.07.26	São Bernardo - Ceará	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
26.04.26	Ceará - Vila Nova	3:3
22.09.24	Ceará - Vila Nova	4:0
10.06.24	Vila Nova - Ceará	3:2
18.11.23	Vila Nova - Ceará	3:1
19.07.23	Ceará - Vila Nova	1:0
03.10.17	Ceará - Vila Nova	2:0
20.06.17	Vila Nova - Ceará	1:1

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