Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 23 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Barradao (Salvador)

Referee: Mendez J. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Colombia	ESPN 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Russia	Okko Sport
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+


	Vitória Salvador		Cerro Largo

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.1	7.5	Watch
	1.47	4.2	6.5
	1.42	4.33	7.5	Watch
	1.44	4.34	8.05
	1.45	4.28	7.84
	1.44	4	7	Watch
	1.47	4.16	7.6	Watch
	1.42	4.33	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.44)	4.22 ↓ (4.33)	7.44 ↑ (6.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória Salvador
65.1%

Draw
22.3%

Cerro Largo
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65%

21.6%

13.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.3%

20.9%

12.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória Salvador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Cerro Largo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

Vitória Salvador - Cerro Largo Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Vitória will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Cerro Largo will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Vitória (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Vitória (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 27. Caceres R. 5. Lucas Halter (C) 43. Edu 83. Jamerson 44. Baralhas 8. Ronald Lopes 30. Matheuzinho 33. Erick 39. Janderson 7. Gustavo Silva	24. Santilli G. (G) 17. Garcia A. 5. Di Pippa A. 2. Parada F. 6. Bonifazi F. 22. Bertocchi N. 8. Mir M. 15. Assis S. 10. Otormin L. 11. Anasco M. 29. Affonso M.
Substitutes
96. Carlos Eduardo 2. Claudinho 23. Fabricio 35. Fintelman (G) 16. Hugo 38. Leo Pereira 22. Lucas Braga 77. Neris 11. Osvaldo 6. Pepe 28. Ricardo Ryller 3. Ze Marcos	14. Correa L. 4. Ferrares B. 32. Gianoli M. 23. Gonzalez T. 27. Medina F. 16. Olivera E. 13. Peraza F. 25. Perez A. 26. Perez Tica J. 1. Pintado F. (G)
Coaches
Thiago Carpini	Nunez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Bertocchi N. 🟨,
33', Matheuzinho 🟨,
42', Garcia A. 🟨,
45+1', Ronald Lopes 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Janderson 🟨,
63', Gustavo Silva ↓, Leo Pereira ↑,
63', Baralhas ↓, Pepe ↑,
63', Erick ↓, Lucas Braga ↑,
70', Affonso M. ↓, Correa L. ↑,
70', Bertocchi N. ↓, Peraza F. ↑,
75', 0 - 1, Peraza F. ⚽, Anasco M. (A),
77', Caceres R. ↓, Claudinho ↑,
77', Janderson ↓, Fabricio ↑,
83', Anasco M. ↓, Medina F. ↑,
90+3', Lucas Braga 🟨,
90+4', Parada F. 🟨,
90+4', Parada F. ↓, Ferrares B. ↑,
90+4', Otormin L. ↓, Gianoli M. ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Vitória is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Cerro Largo is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Cerro Largo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Vitória is indisputable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.25	Fluminense - Vitória Salvador	1:1 ✺
16.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
13.04.25	Atlético Mineiro - Vitória Salvador	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
10.04.25	Defensa y Justicia - Vitória Salvador	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 TWTTL
- Cerro Largo
Uruguayan Primera Division
18.04.25	Cerro Largo - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Boston River - Cerro Largo	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
10.04.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Cerro Largo	3:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.04.25	Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo	0:4 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.04.25	Cerro Largo - Defensa y Justicia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLLLT

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