Match Info

Liga Premier Serie A - Reserves - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday


	Leones Negros 2		Celaya

	1	X	2
	2.14	3.74	2.84	Watch
	2.13	3.6	2.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (2.1)	3.67 ↓ (3.85)	2.83 ↓ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones Negros 2
42.8%

Draw
24.9%

Celaya
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

23.8%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

23.5%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones Negros 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

The chances for Celaya have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones Negros 2 than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celaya than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Leones Negros 2 - Celaya Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
41', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 0 - 2, ⚽,
66', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Leones Negros 2 will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Leones Negros 2 won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:5.

Last Results with these Odds

Leones Negros 2 - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 43.82%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones Negros 2
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
15.04.26	Celaya - Leones Negros 2	5:0 ✺
21.03.26	Leones Negros 2 - Guerreros de Autlán	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Mineros de Fresnillo - Leones Negros 2	3:1 ✺
07.03.26	Leones Negros 2 - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Ensenada - Leones Negros 2	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWLWW
- Atlético Celaya
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
15.04.26	Celaya - Leones Negros 2	5:0 ✺
29.03.26	Montañeses - Celaya	5:1 ✺
21.03.26	Celaya - Inter Playa Del Carmen	0:0 ✺
13.03.26	Héroes de Zaci - Celaya	3:2 ✺
02.03.26	Celaya - Chapulineros de Oaxaca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
15.04.26	Celaya - Leones Negros 2	5:0

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