Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 26

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Municipal de Barreiro (Vigo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Celta de Vigo B		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.2	3.7
	2.02	3.2	3.5
	2.02	3.25	3.84
	1.99	3.34	3.72	Watch
	1.95	2.9	3.5
	1.97	3.32	3.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.03)	3.2 ↓ (3.5)	3.68 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celta de Vigo B
46.4%

Draw
28.7%

Mérida AD
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.8%

26.6%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

25.4%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celta de Vigo B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celta de Vigo B than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Celta de Vigo B - Mérida AD Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Carrillo J. B. (G) 2. Gavian P. 26. Rodriguez A. 6. Meixus P. (C) 4. Vazquez J. 7. Gonzalez H. 16. Capdevila A. 10. de la Iglesia D. 14. Oliveras J. 9. Marin A. 17. Somuah B.	1. Csenterics A. (G) 21. Beneit R. (C) 4. Pareja L. 3. Lancho J. 22. Rivas M. 11. Areso J. 6. Geovanny 8. Solar M. 7. Chiqui 9. Hallsson S. 14. El Ftouhi S.
Substitutes
11. Arcos A. 21. Bilbao L. 13. Caio Barone (G) 25. Gonzalez M. (G) 32. Khayat A. 37. Kibet A. 19. Marcos O. 22. Ndiaye S. M. 35. Perez-Lafuente J. 3. Ribes K. 29. Sobral M.	13. Cacharron P. (G) 16. Capitas M. 18. Dibrani B. 5. Dominguez J. 10. Doncel C. 26. Gil A. (G) 12. Gomes R. 17. Herranz Corral V. 24. Pereira R. 19. Pipe

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Hallsson S. 🟨,
23', Capdevila A. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Gonzalez H. ⚽,
40', 🟨,
43', Gonzalez H. ↓, Marcos O. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Somuah B. 🟨,
55', 🟨,
60', Capdevila A. 🟨,
65', Beneit R. ↓, Pipe ↑,
67', 1 - 1, Areso J. ⚽,
74', Areso J. ↓, Gomes R. ↑,
77', Solar M. 🟨,
81', Gavian P. 🟨,
90', 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 6).

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Mérida AD may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Celta de Vigo B could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Celta de Vigo B won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:4. (average 2.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Celta de Vigo B won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	AD Merida	6	2	0	4	9:11	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Celta de Vigo B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
20.02.26	Ferrol - Celta de Vigo B	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Celta de Vigo B - Real Avilés	4:2 ✺
08.02.26	Ponferradina - Celta de Vigo B	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Celta de Vigo B - Unionistas de Salamanca	2:0 ✺
23.01.26	Celta de Vigo B - Zamora	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWTWT
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
22.02.26	Mérida AD - Cacereño	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Ourense CF - Mérida AD	3:1 ✺
08.02.26	Mérida AD - Zamora	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	Real Avilés - Mérida AD	1:2 ✺
23.01.26	Mérida AD - Pontevedra	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
13.09.25	Mérida AD - Celta de Vigo B	2:4
26.02.23	Mérida AD - Celta de Vigo B	0:3
09.10.22	Celta de Vigo B - Mérida AD	1:2

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