Match Info

A-League - Round 13

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Central Coast Stadium (Gosford)

Referee: Shakespear N. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
New-zealand	Sky Sport 4
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Central Coast Mariners		Macarthur FC

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.6	1.79	Watch
	3.95	3.7	1.82	Watch
	3.32	3.56	2.15	Watch
	3.2	3.3	2.1
	4.47	3.73	1.86	Watch
	4.33	3.6	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.9 ↑ (2.74)	3.58 ↑ (3.48)	1.92 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Central Coast Mariners
24.3%

Draw
26.4%

Macarthur FC
49.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

26.5%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

25.6%

41.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Central Coast Mariners has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Central Coast Mariners's form might have worsened.

Macarthur FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Macarthur FC's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Central Coast Mariners than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Central Coast Mariners, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Macarthur FC than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Macarthur FC, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	33.3%	50%

Central Coast Mariners - Macarthur FC Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Central Coast will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Macarthur will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Macarthur (3.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Central Coast (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Macarthur FC will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Central Coast (votes: 1 - 10%). Macarthur (votes: 9 - 90%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Redmayne A. (G) 24. Herrington D. 2. Donachie J. 26. Tapp B. (C) 15. Roux S. 8. McCalmont A. 48. Donnell C. 5. Mauragis L. 72. Auglah A. 23. Lavale O. 10. Di Pizio M.	12. Kurto F. (G) 18. Scott W. 3. Da Silva D. 5. Jurman M. 25. Talbot C. 26. Brattan L. (C) 10. Caceres A. 22. Rose L. 11. Oliveira B. 28. Sawyer H. 7. Grzan S.
Substitutes
50. Ajanovic J. (G) 37. Brandtman B. 6. Eames H. 11. James Ngor S. 20. Kennedy W. 16. Steele H. 7. Theoharous C.	24. Bosnjak D. 15. Duke M. 9. Ikonomidis C. 14. Popovic K. 17. Randazzo O. 1. Robinson A. (G) 8. Vickery L.
Coaches
Moon W.	Sterjovski M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', Lavale O. ↓, James Ngor S. ↑,
61', Grzan S. ↓, Vickery L. ↑,
61', Sawyer H. ↓, Duke M. ↑,
64', Donnell C. ↓, Eames H. ↑,
64', Auglah A. ↓, Brandtman B. ↑,
67', 0 - 1, Vickery L. ⚽, Duke M. (A),
73', Oliveira B. ↓, Bosnjak D. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, James Ngor S. ⚽, Di Pizio M. (A),
83', Mauragis L. ↓, Kennedy W. ↑,
83', Di Pizio M. ↓, Theoharous C. ↑,
85', Rose L. ↓, Randazzo O. ↑,
86', Caceres A. ↓, Ikonomidis C. ↑,
88', Donachie J. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Central Coast won 2.

Central Coast is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Macarthur has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Macarthur could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Central Coast: Paull N. (International duty) Peraic-Cullen D. (International duty) Sainsbury T. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Macarthur: Ji Dong-Won (Ankle Injury) Politidis H. (Inactive)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Central Coast won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 31:21. (average 2.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Central Coast won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:15. (average 2.3:1.9).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Macarthur FC: 8.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Central Coast Mariners	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Macarthur FC	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Central Coast Mariners - the odds 2.74 are the expected chance of winning is 33.65%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Central Coast Mariners
Australian A-League
10.01.26	Perth Glory - Central Coast Mariners	3:0 ✺
04.01.26	Adelaide United - Central Coast Mariners	0:4 ✺
31.12.25	Central Coast Mariners - Brisbane Roar	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Wellington Phoenix - Central Coast Mariners	3:1 ✺
12.12.25	Central Coast Mariners - Auckland FC	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWLLL
- Macarthur FC
Australian A-League
10.01.26	Macarthur FC - Sydney	0:3 ✺
05.01.26	Macarthur FC - Auckland FC	1:1 ✺
01.01.26	Western Sydney Wanderers - Macarthur FC	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Newcastle Jets - Macarthur FC	4:5 ✺
23.12.25	Melbourne City - Macarthur FC	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.9 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
20.04.25	Central Coast Mariners - Macarthur FC	2:2
23.12.24	Macarthur FC - Central Coast Mariners	1:1
10.03.24	Macarthur FC - Central Coast Mariners	0:3
AFC Cup
22.02.24	Macarthur FC - Central Coast Mariners	2:3 ET
Australian A-League
29.10.23	Central Coast Mariners - Macarthur FC	1:2
11.03.23	Central Coast Mariners - Macarthur FC	4:1
13.01.23	Macarthur FC - Central Coast Mariners	1:2

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