Match Info

A-League - Round 17

Date: 5 January 2026, Monday

Location: Campbelltown Stadium (Sydney)

Referee: Kersey A. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
New-zealand	Sky Sport 1
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Macarthur FC		Auckland FC

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.9	1.86	Watch
	3.1	3.6	2.1
	3.55	3.7	1.92	Watch
	3.39	3.9	1.99	Watch
	3.4	3.6	1.91
	3.89	4	1.91	Watch
	3.5	3.8	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.49 ↓ (3.59)	3.79 ↑ (3.7)	1.95 ↓ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Macarthur FC
26.9%

Draw
24.8%

Auckland FC
48.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.3%

25.5%

48.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.8%

27%

51.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Macarthur FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Auckland FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Macarthur FC than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Auckland FC than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	30%	36.7%

Macarthur FC - Auckland FC Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Macarthur will win (votes: 10 - 33.3%). Auckland will win (votes: 11 - 36.7%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Auckland: 19.5% – 53.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Macarthur (votes: 1 - 20%). Auckland (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Macarthur (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Macarthur (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Auckland (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Kurto F. (G) 25. Talbot C. 6. Uskok T. 14. Popovic K. 7. Grzan S. 10. Caceres A. 26. Brattan L. 18. Scott W. 8. Vickery L. 24. Bosnjak D. 28. Sawyer H.	1. Woud M. (G) 2. Sakai H. 23. Hall D. 4. Pijnaker N. 15. De Vries F. 27. Rogerson L. 8. Gallegos L. F. 6. Verstraete L. 11. Francois M. 21. Randall J. 77. Brook L.
Substitutes
13. Duran R. 9. Ikonomidis C. 5. Jurman M. 32. McKay W. 11. Oliveira B. 1. Robinson A. (G) 22. Rose L.	9. Cosgrove S. 17. Elliot C. 14. Gillion L. 3. Girdwood-Reich J. 7. Howieson C. 10. May G. 20. Sail O. (G)
Coaches
Sterjovski M.	Corica S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
42', 0 - 1, Brook L. ⚽, Sakai H. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Bosnjak D. ↓, Rose L. ↑,
50', De Vries F. 🟨,
53', Randall J. 🟨,
60', Vickery L. ↓, Oliveira B. ↑,
64', Francois M. ↓, Girdwood-Reich J. ↑,
64', Brook L. ↓, Cosgrove S. ↑,
64', Rogerson L. ↓, May G. ↑,
71', 1 - 1, Uskok T. ⚽, Rose L. (A),
77', Scott W. 🟨,
77', Grzan S. ↓, Duran R. ↑,
77', Popovic K. ↓, Jurman M. ↑,
78', Gallegos L. F. ↓, Howieson C. ↑,
81', Sawyer H. ↓, Ikonomidis C. ↑,
85', Randall J. ↓, Gillion L. ↑,
87', Uskok T. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Macarthur is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Auckland's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Auckland may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Macarthur has had a series of away games.

Auckland could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Macarthur: Ji Dong-Won (Ankle Injury) Krslovic S. (Injury) Politidis H. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Macarthur: Caceres A. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Macarthur won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Macarthur won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Auckland FC: 13.59% Macarthur FC: 8.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Macarthur FC	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Auckland FC	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Macarthur FC
Australian A-League
01.01.26	Western Sydney Wanderers - Macarthur FC	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Newcastle Jets - Macarthur FC	4:5 ✺
23.12.25	Melbourne City - Macarthur FC	1:1 ✺
19.12.25	Macarthur FC - Brisbane Roar	2:1 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
11.12.25	Beijing Guoan - Macarthur FC	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29 WWTWW
- Auckland FC
Australian A-League
31.12.25	Auckland FC - Newcastle Jets	1:3 ✺
19.12.25	Western Sydney Wanderers - Auckland FC	0:2 ✺
12.12.25	Central Coast Mariners - Auckland FC	1:2 ✺
05.12.25	Auckland FC - Wellington Phoenix	3:1 ✺
29.11.25	Auckland FC - Newcastle Jets	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
31.01.25	Auckland FC - Macarthur FC	2:1
24.11.24	Macarthur FC - Auckland FC	0:1

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