Match Info

A-League - Round 8

Date: 23 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Referee: Barreiro J. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
New-zealand	Sky Sport 2
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Melbourne City		Macarthur FC

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.2	5.5	Watch
	1.58	4.15	4.95	Watch
	1.6	4.28	5.16	Watch
	1.6	3.9	5
	1.66	4.09	5.32	Watch
	1.62	4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.67)	4.1 ↑ (4.05)	5.16 ↑ (4.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne City
58.8%

Draw
22.9%

Macarthur FC
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.6%

23.3%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.2%

25.2%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Macarthur FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne City than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Macarthur FC than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	19.2%	3.8%

Melbourne City - Macarthur FC Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Melbourne City will win (votes: 20 - 76.9%). Macarthur will win (votes: 1 - 3.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 19.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melbourne City: 60.7% – 93.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Melbourne City (1.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Melbourne City (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Melbourne City will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne City (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Beach P. (G) 27. Trewin K. 22. Ferreyra G. 4. Bonetig L. 13. Atkinson N. 30. Kuen A. 39. Durakovic E. 16. Behich A. (C) 10. Kanamori T. 11. Rashani E. 17. Caputo M.	12. Kurto F. (G) 25. Talbot C. 14. Popovic K. 3. Da Silva D. 24. Bosnjak D. 23. Deli F. 26. Brattan L. (C) 19. Politidis H. 13. Duran R. 8. Vickery L. 33. Ji Dong-Won
Substitutes
37. Antoniou P. 38. Baker B. 44. Kutleshi B. 35. Memeti M. 15. Nabbout A. 33. Ochsenham D. (G) 19. Schreiber Z.	29. Helweh Z. 5. Jurman M. 32. McKay W. 11. Oliveira B. 1. Robinson A. (G) 22. Rose L. 28. Sawyer H.
Coaches
Vidmar A.	Sterjovski M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
18', Deli F. 🟨,
25', 1 - 0, Behich A. ⚽,
26', Ji Dong-Won ↓, Sawyer H. ↑,
33', Brattan L. 🟨,
36', 1 - 1, Duran R. ⚽, Politidis H. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Deli F. ↓, Rose L. ↑,
52', Kuen A. 🟨,
60', Caputo M. ↓, Nabbout A. ↑,
60', Durakovic E. ↓, Schreiber Z. ↑,
60', Rashani E. ↓, Memeti M. ↑,
68', Duran R. ↓, Oliveira B. ↑,
68', Vickery L. ↓, Helweh Z. ↑,
71', Da Silva D. ↓, Jurman M. ↑,
75', Kanamori T. ↓, Baker B. ↑,
89', Bonetig L. ↓, Kutleshi B. ↑,
90', Oliveira B. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 1.

Recent performances by Melbourne City have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Macarthur is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Macarthur may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Macarthur has had a series of home games.

In this match, Melbourne City is the team to beat.

There will not play in Melbourne City: Leckie M. (Hamstring Injury) Lopane A. (Ankle Injury) Mazzeo B. (Inactive) Nieuwenhuizen J. (Knee Injury) Souprayen S. (Inactive) Wong L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Macarthur: Ikonomidis C. (Injury) Krslovic S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Macarthur: Uskok T. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 22:10. (average 2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne City won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 19:5. (average 3.2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne City
Australian A-League
20.12.25	Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory	0:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
10.12.25	FC Seoul - Melbourne City	1:1 ✺
Australian A-League
06.12.25	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne City	0:1 ✺
29.11.25	Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne City	0:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
25.11.25	Melbourne City - Johor Darul Takzim	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LTWTW
- Macarthur FC
Australian A-League
19.12.25	Macarthur FC - Brisbane Roar	2:1 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
11.12.25	Beijing Guoan - Macarthur FC	1:2 ✺
Australian A-League
05.12.25	Macarthur FC - Melbourne Victory	0:0 ✺
30.11.25	Macarthur FC - Perth Glory	0:2 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
27.11.25	Macarthur FC - Wofoo Tai Po	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
07.03.25	Melbourne City - Macarthur FC	2:0
25.01.25	Macarthur FC - Melbourne City	1:0
01.03.24	Macarthur FC - Melbourne City	2:0
11.11.23	Melbourne City - Macarthur FC	3:3
19.03.23	Macarthur FC - Melbourne City	1:1
04.02.23	Melbourne City - Macarthur FC	6:1
26.03.22	Macarthur FC - Melbourne City	0:1

Melbourne City - Macarthur FC: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide