Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Parque Palermo (Montevideo)

Referee: Silveira P. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Central Español		Danubio

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.9	2.25	Watch
	3.15	3	2.25
	3.12	3.14	2.47
	3.14	3.17	2.32	Watch
	3	3	2.3
	3.23	3.02	2.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↓ (3.2)	3.04 ↓ (3.13)	2.32 ↑ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Central Español
29.6%

Draw
30.5%

Danubio
39.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.2%

29.8%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

29.3%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Central Español has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Central Español than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Central Español - Danubio Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Central Español will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Danubio will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Rodolfo (G) 17. Fernandez L. 2. Rodriguez I. 14. Villoldo A. (C) 26. Cesar Nunes 4. Montiel M. 24. Gandolfo G. 7. Munoz F. 30. Alonso M. 28. Aguilera M. 9. Tarragona R.	1. Goicoechea M. (C) 33. Garcia D. 2. Velazquez E. 4. Rinaldi M. 31. Cavanagh T. 16. Rossi I. 8. Rodriguez S. 10. Peralta M. 18. Mayada C. 20. Ferreira M. 30. Fernandez S.
Substitutes
22. Aramburu E. 3. Dupont J. 23. Gonella I. . Kusmanis M. 1. Marquez E. (G) 16. Mendez I. 5. Navarro S. 21. Pino L. 27. Sosa F. 20. Vera D.	19. Azambuja B. 21. Azambuja N. 7. Cabrera E. 28. Femia E. 29. Jourdan M. 32. Martinez K. (G) 25. Montana A. 3. Pereyra J. 26. Piriz D. 6. Sosa L.
Coaches
de Ambrosio P.	Matosas G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Rodolfo (Own goal),
43', Velazquez E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
55', Ferreira M. ↓, Sosa L. ↑,
57', Sosa L. 🟨,
64', Montiel M. ↓, Vera D. ↑,
64', Aguilera M. ↓, Sosa F. ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Sosa F. ⚽,
67', Garcia D. ↓, Cabrera E. ↑,
67', Fernandez S. ↓, Azambuja N. ↑,
71', Alonso M. 🟨,
76', Rodriguez I. 🟨,
76', Azambuja N. 🟨,
77', Alonso M. ↓, Dupont J. ↑,
77', Fernandez L. ↓, Navarro S. ↑,
83', 2 - 1, Tarragona R. ⚽,
83', Tarragona R. 🟨,
86', Rodriguez I. 🟨,
90+1', Villoldo A. 🟨,
90+2', Tarragona R. ↓, Pino L. ↑,
90+2', Peralta M. ↓, Azambuja B. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 2, Rodriguez S. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Danubio will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Central Español won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Central Español won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Danubio	9	1	4	4	4:10	-6	7

Last Results with these Odds

Danubio - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 40.97%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Central Español
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.04.26	Nacional Montevideo - Central Español	0:1 ✺
30.03.26	Central Español - Deportivo Maldonado	2:1 ✺
24.03.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Central Español	3:3 ✺
21.03.26	Montevideo City Torque - Central Español	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Central Español - Cerro Largo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.8 WWTLL
- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.04.26	Danubio - Montevideo City Torque	1:1 ✺
30.03.26	Cerro Largo - Danubio	2:0 ✺
26.03.26	Danubio - Defensor Sporting	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Danubio	2:1 ✺
16.03.26	Danubio - Juventud de Las Piedras	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
15.09.21	Danubio - Central Español	1:1
02.06.21	Central Español - Danubio	0:0
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.05.13	Danubio - Central Español	0:2
10.11.12	Central Español - Danubio	1:0

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