Match Info

J1 League - Round 5

Date: 2 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Yodoko Sakura Stadium (Osaka)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Cerezo Osaka		Kashiwa Reysol

	1	X	2
	3.30	3.60	2.01	Watch
	3.30	3.50	2.05
	3.15	3.50	2.08	Watch
	3.46	3.74	2.12
	3.5	3.73	2.01	Watch
	3.35	3.70	2.07
	3.53	3.65	2.02	Watch
	3.30	3.60	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.36 ↑ (2.55)	3.63 ↑ (3.55)	2.06 ↓ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerezo Osaka
28.1%

Draw
26%

Kashiwa Reysol
45.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.2%

26%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerezo Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cerezo Osaka's form might have worsened.

Kashiwa Reysol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kashiwa Reysol's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	30%	70%

Cerezo Osaka - Kashiwa Reysol Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Kashiwa will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kashiwa: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Nakamura K. (G) 27. Cools D. 44. Hatanaka S. 4. Inoue R. 16. Okuda H. 36. Irvine J. 10. Tanaka S. (C) 66. Ohata A. 8. Kagawa S. 11. Thiago Andrade 9. Sakuragawa S.	25. Kojima R. (G) 42. Harada W. 4. Koga T. (C) 26. Sugioka D. 24. Kubo T. 27. Kumasaka K. 39. Nakagawa N. 5. Endo K. 8. Koizumi Y. 87. Yamauchi H. 18. Kakita Y.
Substitutes
31. Abe K. (G) 45. Nagasoe K. 2. Nakamura T. 6. Noborizato K. 28. Okazawa K. 19. Sabbag P. 97. Takahashi T. 7. Uejo S. 14. Yokoyama Y.	88. Baba S. 40. Harakawa R. 9. Hosoya M. 21. Konishi Y. 2. Mitsumaru H. 20. Segawa Y. 77. Wakahara T. (G) 44. Yuba K. 16. Yuruki K.
Coaches
Machin P.	Rodriguez R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Sakuragawa S. ⚽, Okuda H. (A),
42', Irvine J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kakita Y. ↓, Hosoya M. ↑,
46', Yamauchi H. ↓, Segawa Y. ↑,
46', Kumasaka K. ↓, Konishi Y. ↑,
55', Endo K. ↓, Yuba K. ↑,
56', Kagawa S. ↓, Okazawa K. ↑,
56', Thiago Andrade ↓, Yokoyama Y. ↑,
68', 2 - 0, Sakuragawa S. (Penalty Awarded),
69', Koizumi Y. ↓, Yuruki K. ↑,
79', Rodriguez R. 🟨,
80', Sakuragawa S. ↓, Sabbag P. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 0.

Recent performances by Cerezo Osaka have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Kashiwa is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Kashiwa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Kashiwa might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Kambayashi G. (Shoulder Injury) Sakata R. (Hamstring Injury) Shibayama M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Kashiwa: Okubo T. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Tezuka K. (Inactive) Watai M. (Inactive) Yamada Y. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 17:20. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerezo Osaka won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 0.8:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kashiwa Reysol	9	7	0	2	21:14	7	21
12	Cerezo Osaka	9	3	3	3	7:12	-5	12

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Kashiwa Reysol: 11.03% Cerezo Osaka: 2.13%

Last Results with these Odds

Cerezo Osaka - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 36.24%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Kashiwa Reysol - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 37.72%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerezo Osaka
Japan J1 League
29.08.26	Vissel Kobe - Cerezo Osaka	1:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Cerezo Osaka - Gifu	3:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
22.08.26	Cerezo Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Cerezo Osaka	3:0 ✺
08.08.26	Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWWLW
- Kashiwa Reysol
Japan J1 League
29.08.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Kashiwa Reysol	0:1 ✺
21.08.26	Kashiwa Reysol - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:0 ✺
14.08.26	Tokyo Verdy - Kashiwa Reysol	1:3 ✺
08.08.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Mito HollyHock	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	JEF United Chiba - Kashiwa Reysol	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
20.09.25	Cerezo Osaka - Kashiwa Reysol	1:1
26.02.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Cerezo Osaka	2:1
28.09.24	Cerezo Osaka - Kashiwa Reysol	0:0
03.04.24	Kashiwa Reysol - Cerezo Osaka	1:1
12.08.23	Kashiwa Reysol - Cerezo Osaka	1:1
23.04.23	Cerezo Osaka - Kashiwa Reysol	1:0
08.10.22	Kashiwa Reysol - Cerezo Osaka	0:0

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