Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 13

Date: 2 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Obdulio Varela (Montevideo)


	Cerrito		Colón Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.1	2.4
	2.55	3.25	2.38
	3.76	3.54	1.9
	25.00	13.87	1.02	Watch
	2.7	2.9	2.5
	2.68	3.06	2.44
	3.6	3.1	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.13 ↑ (3.54)	4.69 ↑ (3.25)	2.08 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerrito
19.1%

Draw
24.9%

Colón Montevideo
56%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26%

28.4%

45.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.9%

27.1%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerrito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cerrito's form might have worsened.

Colón Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Colón Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerrito than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cerrito, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Colón Montevideo than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Colón Montevideo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	10%	90%

Cerrito - Colón Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: Colón Montevideo will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Colón Montevideo will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
33', 0 - 1, Ferreira M. ⚽,
45+2', 0 - 2, Ferreira M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+8', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium.

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 12 and 6).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Cerrito has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Cerrito won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerrito won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Cerrito - the odds 3.54 are the expected chance of winning is 26.03%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Cerrito
Uruguayan Segunda Division
27.07.25	Deportivo Maldonado - Cerrito	1:0 ✺
20.07.25	Oriental de La Paz - Cerrito	1:1 ✺
12.07.25	Uruguay Montevideo - Cerrito	0:0 ✺
05.07.25	Cerrito - Albion Montevideo	1:0 ✺
29.06.25	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Cerrito	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 LTTWL
- Colón Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
26.07.25	Colón Montevideo - Artigas	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	Colón Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	0:0 ✺
13.07.25	Oriental de La Paz - Colón Montevideo	1:0 ✺
05.07.25	Colón Montevideo - Uruguay Montevideo	5:1 ✺
29.06.25	Albion Montevideo - Colón Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
26.09.24	Cerrito - Colón Montevideo	0:2
08.06.24	Colón Montevideo - Cerrito	0:2
21.04.24	Cerrito - Colón Montevideo	1:1

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