Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 12

Date: 27 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel (Maldonado)


	Deportivo Maldonado		Cerrito

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	3.3
	2.22	3.05	2.98
	2.36	3.21	2.91
	2.54	2.94	2.92	Watch
	2.1	2.9	3.5
	2.32	3.05	2.94
	1.78	3.34	4.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (1.82)	3.07 ↓ (3.5)	3.25 ↓ (3.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Maldonado
41.8%

Draw
29.9%

Cerrito
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

26.2%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

25.4%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Maldonado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo Maldonado's form might have worsened.

Cerrito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Maldonado than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo Maldonado, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerrito than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cerrito, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Deportivo Maldonado - Cerrito Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', 1 - 0, Noble Sequeira A. M. ⚽,
62', Llanes A. 🟥,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 and 11).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Maldonado could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Maldonado won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 1.3:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Maldonado won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Maldonado SAD
Uruguayan Segunda Division
20.07.25	Colón Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	0:0 ✺
12.07.25	Artigas - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1 ✺
06.07.25	Deportivo Maldonado - Oriental de La Paz	3:0 ✺
28.06.25	Uruguay Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	1:3 ✺
22.06.25	Deportivo Maldonado - Albion Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TTWWL
- CS Cerrito
Uruguayan Segunda Division
20.07.25	Oriental de La Paz - Cerrito	1:1 ✺
12.07.25	Uruguay Montevideo - Cerrito	0:0 ✺
05.07.25	Cerrito - Albion Montevideo	1:0 ✺
29.06.25	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Cerrito	3:2 ✺
21.06.25	Cerrito - Rampla Juniors	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.7 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
11.08.22	Deportivo Maldonado - Cerrito	2:1
21.02.22	Cerrito - Deportivo Maldonado	0:3
25.11.21	Deportivo Maldonado - Cerrito	0:1
16.08.21	Cerrito - Deportivo Maldonado	0:0

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