Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 8

Date: 28 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Charrúa (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Cerrito		Plaza Colonia

	1	X	2
	3.25	2.95	2.10
	3.3	2.88	2.18
	3.23	3	2.18
	3.46	2.97	2.23	Watch
	3.05	2.7	2.04
	3.48	3.04	2.06
	3.30	2.90	2.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↑ (2.95)	2.92 ↓ (3.1)	2.13 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerrito
27.2%

Draw
30.7%

Plaza Colonia
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

29.1%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

28.6%

39.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerrito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Plaza Colonia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerrito than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Plaza Colonia than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Cerrito - Plaza Colonia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
65', 1 - 0, Isasmendi J. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerrito won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Plaza Colonia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Plaza Colonia could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Cerrito won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 1.1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerrito won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Plaza Colonia	21	9	5	7	26:21	5	32
8	Cerrito	21	7	8	6	27:24	3	29

Last Results with these Odds

Cerrito - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 30.54%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Plaza Colonia - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 40.4%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Cerrito
Uruguayan Segunda Division
21.06.26	La Luz - Cerrito	2:0 ✺
14.06.26	River Plate Montevideo - Cerrito	6:4 ✺
07.06.26	Cerrito - Atenas de San Carlos	2:1 ✺
30.05.26	Paysandú - Cerrito	0:1 ✺
24.05.26	Cerrito - Huracán Paso de la Arena	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LLWWW
- Plaza Colonia
Uruguayan Segunda Division
20.06.26	Plaza Colonia - Atenas de San Carlos	1:2 ✺
14.06.26	Paysandú - Plaza Colonia	1:2 ✺
05.06.26	Plaza Colonia - Huracán Paso de la Arena	0:0 ✺
30.05.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	2:0 ✺
22.05.26	Plaza Colonia - Oriental de La Paz	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
10.11.24	Plaza Colonia - Cerrito	1:0
20.07.24	Cerrito - Plaza Colonia	0:1
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.10.22	Plaza Colonia - Cerrito	1:3
26.06.22	Plaza Colonia - Cerrito	3:0
04.06.22	Cerrito - Plaza Colonia	1:1
11.10.21	Plaza Colonia - Cerrito	3:3
12.06.21	Cerrito - Plaza Colonia	1:2

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