Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 6

Date: 14 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Parque Federico Omar Saroldi (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	River Plate Montevideo		Cerrito

	1	X	2
	2.37	3.20	2.60
	2.33	3.10	2.75
	2.58	3.47	2.63
	2.25	3.57	2.83	Watch
	2.50	3.10	2.50
	2.63	3.26	2.63	Watch
	1.9	3.35	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (1.9)	3.29 ↓ (3.35)	2.78 ↓ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate Montevideo
38.9%

Draw
28%

Cerrito
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.6%

27%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

27.8%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that River Plate Montevideo's form might have worsened.

Cerrito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cerrito's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for River Plate Montevideo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerrito than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cerrito, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

River Plate Montevideo - Cerrito Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. River Plate will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Cerrito will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (5 - 3)
4', 1 - 0, Techera C. ⚽,
12', 1 - 1, Hernandez R. ⚽,
13', 1 - 2, Yepez I. ⚽,
18', 2 - 2, Chiappini F. ⚽,
31', 3 - 2, Garcia A. ⚽,
34', 3 - 3, Yepez I. ⚽,
38', 4 - 3, Lopez I. ⚽,
45+1', 5 - 3, Techera C. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
90+3', 6 - 3, ⚽,
90+7', 6 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga AUF Uruguaya (Apertura: )).

River Plate has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cerrito is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

River Plate may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

River Plate might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:5. (average 2.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, River Plate won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:1. (average 2.3:0.3).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	River Plate	21	8	6	7	31:26	5	30
8	Cerrito	21	7	8	6	27:24	3	29

Last Results with these Odds

Cerrito - the odds 3.55 are the expected chance of winning is 25.46%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
06.06.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	3:1 ✺
31.05.26	River Plate Montevideo - Atenas de San Carlos	0:2 ✺
23.05.26	Rentistas - River Plate Montevideo	1:2 ✺
16.05.26	River Plate Montevideo - Paysandú	1:0 ✺
10.05.26	Miramar Misiones - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LLWWT
- CS Cerrito
Uruguayan Segunda Division
07.06.26	Cerrito - Atenas de San Carlos	2:1 ✺
30.05.26	Paysandú - Cerrito	0:1 ✺
24.05.26	Cerrito - Huracán Paso de la Arena	2:0 ✺
16.05.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Cerrito	2:2 ✺
10.05.26	Oriental de La Paz - Cerrito	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
05.09.22	Cerrito - River Plate Montevideo	1:5
10.06.22	River Plate Montevideo - Cerrito	3:0
28.02.22	River Plate Montevideo - Cerrito	3:1
11.09.21	River Plate Montevideo - Cerrito	1:0
16.05.21	Cerrito - River Plate Montevideo	3:1

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