Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 7

Date: 21 June 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	La Luz		Cerrito

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.95	2.80
	2.32	2.88	3
	2.47	3	3
	2.5	2.88	3.1	Watch
	2.40	2.80	2.90
	2.36	2.91	2.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (2.17)	2.9 ↓ (3.05)	2.97 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

La Luz
37.9%

Draw
31.4%

Cerrito
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

29.5%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

30.4%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Luz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Cerrito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerrito than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

La Luz - Cerrito Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Gottesman J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
73', 🟥,
90+7', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 11 and 4).

La Luz has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cerrito is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

La Luz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, La Luz won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:3. (average 1.6:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, La Luz won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 4:1).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Cerrito	21	7	8	6	27:24	3	29
9	La Luz	21	7	6	8	19:24	-5	27

Last Results with these Odds

Cerrito - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 29.03%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Segunda Division
14.06.26	Atenas de San Carlos - La Luz	4:0 ✺
06.06.26	La Luz - Paysandú	1:2 ✺
31.05.26	Huracán Paso de la Arena - La Luz	1:1 ✺
24.05.26	La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo	2:0 ✺
17.05.26	Oriental de La Paz - La Luz	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLTWT
- CS Cerrito
Uruguayan Segunda Division
14.06.26	River Plate Montevideo - Cerrito	6:4 ✺
07.06.26	Cerrito - Atenas de San Carlos	2:1 ✺
30.05.26	Paysandú - Cerrito	0:1 ✺
24.05.26	Cerrito - Huracán Paso de la Arena	2:0 ✺
16.05.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Cerrito	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
18.04.26	Cerrito - La Luz	0:0
16.08.25	Cerrito - La Luz	1:0
24.05.25	La Luz - Cerrito	2:2
14.09.24	Cerrito - La Luz	0:0
31.05.24	La Luz - Cerrito	6:0

Upcoming Matches