Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Cerro		Montevideo Wanderers

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.1	2.38	Watch
	2.70	3.20	2.40
	2.72	3.05	2.45
	2.94	3.05	2.68
	2.84	3.15	2.54	Watch
	2.9	3	2.65
	2.76	3.26	2.5	Watch
	2.75	3.15	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.67)	3.12 (3.12)	2.51 ↓ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro
33.4%

Draw
29.7%

Montevideo Wanderers
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

30%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

28.9%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Montevideo Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montevideo Wanderers than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Cerro - Montevideo Wanderers Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Wanderers will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Irrazabal Y. (G) 22. Suarez D. 16. Guasone J. 5. Macelli A. (C) 17. Rodriguez G. 31. Amaro J. 19. Sosa E. 10. Aleman B. 27. Barros C. 14. Rodriguez E. 70. Leonardo Pais	33. Buffa A. (G) 2. Cabral N. 13. Formiliano F. 21. Benitez S. 31. Furtado N. 5. Queiroz N. 10. Cosentino L. 15. Mencia Hernandez D. J. 16. Alberti J. 24. Zeballos J. 30. Labandeira F.
Substitutes
6. Bregante F. 1. Denis D. (G) 11. Forclaz E. 3. Lima A. 32. Mederos R. 8. Miranda A. 9. Morales B. 35. Nongoy P. 7. Severo A. 20. Villar M.	14. Acosta M. 25. Freitas G. 17. Garcia A. 11. Luna J. 9. Ormeno S. 12. Rio J. (G) 7. Rivero R. 26. Sanchez R. 80. Urretaviscaya J. 6. Zazpe L.
Coaches
Cappuccio A.	Corujo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
18', 0 - 1, Labandeira F. ⚽,
21', Labandeira F. 🟨,
38', Mencia Hernandez D. J. 🟨,
38', Suarez D. 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 2, Cosentino L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Cabral N. 🟨,
61', Leonardo Pais ↓, Severo A. ↑,
66', Zeballos J. ↓, Luna J. ↑,
66', Mencia Hernandez D. J. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
69', Guasone J. ↓, Morales B. ↑,
73', Rodriguez E. 🟨,
80', Labandeira F. ↓, Freitas G. ↑,
80', Cosentino L. ↓, Urretaviscaya J. ↑,
87', Rodriguez G. ↓, Bregante F. ↑,
87', Sosa E. ↓, Miranda A. ↑,
89', Luna J. 🟨,
90+3', Alberti J. ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro won 2.

Cerro is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Wanderers has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Wanderers may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Cerro has recorded 8 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:18 (averaging 1:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Cerro against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with 12:9 goals (averaging 1.2:0.9 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Wanderers	9	4	3	2	12:11	1	15
8	CA Cerro	9	4	2	3	9:11	-2	14

Last Results with these Odds

Cerro - the odds 2.67 are the expected chance of winning is 35.02%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Montevideo Wanderers - the odds 2.67 are the expected chance of winning is 35.02%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
27.09.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Cerro	0:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
23.09.26	Cerro - Deportivo Maldonado	1:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.09.26	Cerro - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Progreso - Cerro	1:3 ✺
Uruguay Copa
10.09.26	Cerro - Cerrito	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TLLWL
- Montevideo Wanderers
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.09.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Albion Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
23.09.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerrito	1:3 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.09.26	Danubio - Montevideo Wanderers	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Nacional Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
09.09.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Montevideo Wanderers	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguay Copa
01.09.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerro	1:1
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.03.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerro	3:0
26.09.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerro	0:1
01.06.25	Cerro - Montevideo Wanderers	1:2
31.03.25	Cerro - Montevideo Wanderers	2:1
16.08.24	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerro	1:0
18.02.24	Cerro - Montevideo Wanderers	1:1

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