Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 14 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Referee: Alarcon J. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 4
Asia	beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	DGO Latin America, ESPN 5 South
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Cerro Largo		Vitória Salvador

	1	X	2
	3.2	3	2.4	Watch
	3.3	3	2.25
	3	3	2.45	Watch
	3.13	3.06	2.48
	3.09	3.06	2.5	Watch
	3.3	2.9	2.25	Watch
	3.11	3.01	2.51	Watch
	3	3	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.14 ↓ (3.65)	3 ↓ (3.11)	2.41 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro Largo
29.9%

Draw
31.2%

Vitória Salvador
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.8%

30.3%

43.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.4%

28.5%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro Largo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Vitória Salvador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Cerro Largo - Vitória Salvador Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Cerro Largo will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Vitória will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Santilli G. (G) 2. Parada F. 13. Peraza F. 5. Di Pippa A. 6. Bonifazi F. 14. Correa L. 22. Bertocchi N. 8. Mir M. 15. Assis S. 11. Anasco M. 7. Contrera J.	1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 27. Caceres R. 43. Edu 5. Lucas Halter (C) 83. Jamerson 28. Ricardo Ryller 8. Ronald Lopes 30. Matheuzinho 10. Wellington Rato 11. Osvaldo 39. Janderson
Substitutes
21. Alfonso M. 17. Garcia A. 32. Gianoli M. 18. Gonzalez C. 23. Gonzalez T. 30. Hernandez B. 10. Otormin L. 25. Perez A. 1. Pintado F. (G) 3. Piriz M. 28. Rollano S. 9. Rossi F.	44. Baralhas 99. Carlinhos 96. Carlos Eduardo 2. Claudinho 33. Erick 23. Fabricio 35. Fintelman (G) 7. Gustavo Silva 38. Leo Pereira 22. Lucas Braga 77. Neris 3. Ze Marcos
Coaches
Nunez D.	Thiago Carpini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Caceres R. ↓, Claudinho ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Wellington Rato ↓, Erick ↑,
46', Janderson ↓, Fabricio ↑,
46', Osvaldo ↓, Gustavo Silva ↑,
59', Assis S. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
63', Ricardo Ryller ↓, Carlinhos ↑,
73', Peraza F. ↓, Rossi F. ↑,
73', Contrera J. ↓, Hernandez B. ↑,
73', Parada F. ↓, Gianoli M. ↑,
76', Correa L. 🟨,
80', Claudinho 🟨,
83', 0 - 1, Claudinho ⚽,
85', Mir M. ↓, Perez A. ↑,

Preview

Cerro Largo is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Vitória has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Cerro Largo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Vitória has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Cerro Largo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerro Largo
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.25	Cerro Largo - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:3 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.25	Cerro Largo - Plaza Colonia	2:1 ✺
28.04.25	Racing Montevideo - Cerro Largo	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Cerro Largo	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
18.04.25	Cerro Largo - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.8 LWTWW
- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Vitória Salvador - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.25	Vitória Salvador - Defensa y Justicia	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.25	Ceará - Vitória Salvador	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Cerro Largo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Cerro Largo	0:1

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