Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 6 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Barradao (Salvador)

Referee: Gilabert F. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DSports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 2, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	DSports 1


	Vitória Salvador		Defensa y Justicia

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.1	3	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.6
	2.4	3.1	3	Watch
	2.47	3.02	3.18
	2.42	3.19	3.1	Watch
	2	3.2	3.6	Watch
	2.37	3.16	3.18	Watch
	2.4	3.1	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (1.9)	3.15 ↓ (3.4)	3.21 ↓ (4.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória Salvador
40.7%

Draw
29.9%

Defensa y Justicia
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

27.6%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.1%

27.2%

22.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória Salvador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vitória Salvador's form might have worsened.

Defensa y Justicia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Defensa y Justicia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vitória Salvador, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensa y Justicia than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Defensa y Justicia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	41.7%	8.3%

Vitória Salvador - Defensa y Justicia Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Vitória will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Defensa y Justicia will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vitória: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Vitória (votes: 3 - 60%). Defensa y Justicia (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 27. Caceres R. 77. Neris 43. Edu 16. Hugo 8. Ronald Lopes 28. Ricardo Ryller 7. Gustavo Silva 10. Wellington Rato 11. Osvaldo (C) 23. Fabricio	25. Bologna E. (G) 14. Cannavo E. 28. Aguilera E. 34. Delgado R. 3. Soto A. 8. Perez C. 5. Gutierrez K. 20. Gonzalez L. 26. Gonzalez F. 7. Osorio A. 11. Togni G.
Substitutes
99. Carlinhos 2. Claudinho 26. Edenilson 33. Erick 35. Fintelman (G) 83. Jamerson 39. Janderson 38. Leo Pereira 22. Lucas Braga 5. Lucas Halter 30. Matheuzinho 17. Thiaguinho	18. Galvan I. 24. Gonzalez M. 16. Larralde V. 2. Lucero S. 1. Masuero F. (G) 21. Miranda M. 9. Miritello J. B. 33. Palavecino N. 15. Perez D. 38. Rubio T. 35. Schamine B. 22. Sosa S.
Coaches
Thiago Carpini	de Muner P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Edu 🟨,
26', Neris 🟨,
36', Perez C. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Edu ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Fabricio ↓, Janderson ↑,
54', Hugo 🟨,
56', 1 - 1, Togni G. ⚽,
63', Perez C. ↓, Larralde V. ↑,
63', Hugo ↓, Jamerson ↑,
63', Ricardo Ryller ↓, Matheuzinho ↑,
63', Gustavo Silva ↓, Erick ↑,
70', Gonzalez F. ↓, Miranda M. ↑,
71', Gonzalez L. ↓, Schamine B. ↑,
71', Wellington Rato ↓, Carlinhos ↑,
86', Osorio A. ↓, Miritello J. B. ↑,

Preview

In recent matches, Vitória has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Defensa y Justicia is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Vitória may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Vitória might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Vitória won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.25	Ceará - Vitória Salvador	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Cerro Largo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.25	Fluminense - Vitória Salvador	1:1 ✺
16.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LTLTW
- Defensa y Justicia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.05.25	Independiente Rivadavia - Defensa y Justicia	3:2 ✺
28.04.25	Defensa y Justicia - Racing	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.04.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Defensa y Justicia	3:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.04.25	Huracán Buenos Aires - Defensa y Justicia	1:1 ✺
14.04.25	Defensa y Justicia - Unión Santa Fe	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
10.04.25	Defensa y Justicia - Vitória Salvador	0:0

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