Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio - Round 7

Date: 30 June 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla (Melo)

Where to Watch on TV:


South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Cerro Largo		River Plate Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	3.8	Watch
	1.78	3.1	4.6
	1.92	3.15	3.95	Watch
	2.06	3.27	4.02
				Watch
	1.85	3.1	4.6
	2.02	3.18	3.85	Watch
	1.92	3.15	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.91)	3.18 ↓ (3.39)	4.11 ↑ (4.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro Largo
48.1%

Draw
29.3%

River Plate Montevideo
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

27.6%

23.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

24.7%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro Largo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Cerro Largo - River Plate Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Cerro Largo will win (votes: 1 - 20%). River Plate will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - River Plate (2.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. River Plate (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Santilli G. (G) 14. Correa L. 5. Di Pippa A. 21. Gianoli M. 6. Bonifazi F. 8. Mir M. 15. Assis S. 25. Perez A. 11. Anasco M. 9. Rossi F. 13. Peraza F.	25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 4. Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. 13. Almeida C. (C) 3. Ramos N. 6. Cabrera R. 5. Rodriguez J. 22. Alfonso M. 7. Quintana J. 11. De Los Santos J. 10. Vera A. 19. Barone F.
Substitutes
17. Garcia A. 18. Gonzalez C. 2. Gonzalez T. 30. Hernandez B. 7. Medina F. 16. Olivera E. 1. Pintado F. (G) 28. Rollano S.	21. Cabrera F. 29. Camejo L. 9. Correa T. 14. De Leon F. 1. Frascarelli D. (G) 18. Lopez I. 27. Lopez I. 2. Perez F. 23. Rodriguez F.
Coaches
Nunez D.	Ribas J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', Mir M. 🟨,
20', 1 - 0, Mir M. ⚽,
22', Correa L. 🟨,
28', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
31', Quintana J. 🟨,
33', Barone F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Quintana J. ↓, De Leon F. ↑,
46', Barone F. ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
48', Rodriguez J. ↓, Correa T. ↑,
53', Lopez I. ↓,
59', 1 - 1, Di Pippa A. (Own goal),
69', De Los Santos J. ↓, Camejo L. ↑,
71', 2 - 1, Rossi F. ⚽,
75', Rossi F. ↓, Medina F. ↑,
75', Anasco M. ↓, Rollano S. ↑,
81', Di Pippa A. 🟨,
83', 2 - 2, Correa Gonzalez F. N. (Pen),
90', Almeida C. 🟨,
90+1', Mir M. ↓, Gonzalez C. ↑,
90+3', Assis S. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 8 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro Largo won 4.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

River Plate may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Cerro Largo is the team to beat.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Cerro Largo won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 27:29. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerro Largo won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:15. (average 1.4:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerro Largo
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.06.25	Cerro Largo - Plaza Colonia	0:1 ✺
19.06.25	Cerro - Cerro Largo	2:1 ✺
12.06.25	Cerro Largo - Montevideo Wanderers	0:0 ✺
07.06.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:1 ✺
01.06.25	Cerro Largo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLTLT
- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.06.25	River Plate Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	2:1 ✺
19.06.25	Plaza Colonia - River Plate Montevideo	0:0 ✺
15.06.25	River Plate Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:3 ✺
06.06.25	Cerro - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
01.06.25	River Plate Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
18.04.25	Cerro Largo - River Plate Montevideo	1:0
09.11.24	Cerro Largo - River Plate Montevideo	1:0
05.05.24	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:3
19.08.23	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro Largo	0:0
04.02.23	Cerro Largo - River Plate Montevideo	2:1
Club Friendly
26.01.23	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro Largo	1:2
Uruguayan Primera Division
29.08.22	Cerro Largo - River Plate Montevideo	0:5

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